All of the odds boosts are updated and ready to go! I will post my contest plays closer to kick off! I hope that you saw my tweet about Coastal Carolina -35 as they rolled by 50. The games cannot start soon enough.
9-24-21 Week three is always a little weird. We have some new data and two games as an eye test, but how much can we trust what we have watched to this point. I am skeptical of plenty of teams and with the Colts for sure, I have no idea what to make of them. This is where we really start to learn about everyone after week three. Just like the first two weeks, I will update this article as new odds boosts are posted and I post my wagers. I will also tweet out the five games I use in my picks contest Sunday morning.
9-23-21 Last week was pretty disappointing. I liked four games all week, but needed a fifth for my contests. I settled on the Chiefs. The Chiefs were up 11 with the ball late in the third and lost the game outright, as I am sure you know. Some weeks are much tougher than others are and some games may stand out. I thought Carolina last week was an easy play as the Saints were way over valued. I thought Bears coming home giving less than a field goal was also a solid wager. I ended up betting more on the Bears than anyone else by the time Sunday 1 PM rolled around. The Bengals were a public dog and darling, but I was betting on the Bears defense at home. I still think the Eagles was the correct side in that game, but they failed to come away with points too many times when deep in Niner’s territory. My big mistake was staying with the Steelers. Once the Devin Bush and Joe Haden injuries were announced, in some of my contests I had ample time to make a change. This is where my love of my team gets in the way. I thought the defense would be able to figure it out. Once Tyson Alualu and TJ Watt got hurt early in the game, the Steelers were without four defensive starters. Of course, that does not fix the problems on offense. I should have swapped off the Steelers to someone else. After all, I bad planned to play the Vikings, but missing defensive starters scared me off. Why would I do that with Minnesota, but not Pittsburgh? Oh, yeah, I was going to the Steeler game and they are my team.
In the end, I finished 2-3 in my contests, brining my season long record to 7-3, which is good enough for 68th place in the Draft Kings picks contest.
I went 2-2 in games I gave out on the Numberball.com Podcast with Jeff. Our computer model went 1-2 on premium plays. One was New Orleans and well, I went the other way as you know. Atlanta not covering after being down three-points with the ball in the fourth quarter was a weird result, but that can happen. Looking at everything and I think my process was correct on most games except sticking with the Steelers. The best part of betting on the NFL is we can learn from our mistakes and go full Ted Lasso and “be a goldfish.” We are on to week three!
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Computer Model Plays Week 3
Platinum
CHI +7
NO +3
Premium
BAL -8
IND +5.5
ATL +3
PIT -3
ARZ -7
NYJ +10.5
Regular Plays
WAS +7.5
KC -6.5
LVR -4
TB -1
SEA -1.5
GB +3.5
PHI +4
Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.
ARZ/BAL/DEN to all win +110
This should pay -117 or so. We all know one of these touchdown or more favorites is going to lose, but who? I am in on this.
Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded with a $25 free bet. You have to do these things.
20% Profit Boost for every Sunday game. This is a max bet of $50, but you should use this, then bet more after. I mean why would you not take a team from -110 into plus money?
I am ehhhh on all the DK boosts except for one.
Michael Carter to have 12+ receiving yards +110
Tevin Coleman is out. This is set to 10.5 and the over is slightly juiced. I am in here. The Jets will be behind and throwing and one or two dump offs will hit the over here.
Barstool Sportsbook
Do you want to back any of the Barstool employees random parlay boosts? Yeah, me either.
Fox Bet
ARZ/BUF/CLE to all win +150
This should pay +114 and it is solid. Look, I am taking the dog in some of these games, but I am happy to do both for this boost. I am in.
Honestly, there is nothing that is even in the realm of good. Many of these are combined props that you are better off betting on their own. Disappointing.
NFL
LAC +6.5
The Chiefs have really struggled to cover and the Chargers had so many penalties and weird red zone turnovers last week. I think the Chargers can win outright, but I will happily take the points.
LAR +1.5
No AB means the Rams can put Ramsey on Evans and make the rest of the Bucs offense beat them. Maybe I am crazy, but this lines up perfectly for a Rams defense that has not been as good as expected. I think they get right here and get pressure on Brady and the Rams win at home. The Bucs will not go 17-0.
PHI +4
I bet this Friday night. I know the game is Monday, but grab the numbers before they disappear. The Eagles make it difficult to run the ball and the Cowboys defense won last week despite forcing one punt. This is a close game and I like Philly.
College Football
Nothing at this time.
Let’s Get Weird
7 point teaser +700
ARZ -.5/BAL -.5/WAS +14/LAC +14/CHI +14.5/DEN -3.5/LAR +8.5/PHI +10
NFL Computer Model
Overall 16-17 48.48%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 3-2 60%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 3-2 60%
Our Plays
Overall 6-2 75%
NFL Odds Boosts 4-7 -275
College Football
Overall 3-1 75%
College Odds Boosts 1-0 +100
Win The Weekends 