Week three is always a little weird. We have some new data and two games as an eye test, but how much can we trust what we have watched to this point. I am skeptical of plenty of teams and with the Colts for sure, I have no idea what to make of them. This is where we really start to learn about everyone after week three. Just like the first two weeks, I will update this article as new odds boosts are posted and I post my wagers. I will also tweet out the five games I use in my picks contest Sunday morning.
9-23-21 Last week was pretty disappointing. I liked four games all week, but needed a fifth for my contests. I settled on the Chiefs. The Chiefs were up 11 with the ball late in the third and lost the game outright, as I am sure you know. Some weeks are much tougher than others are and some games may stand out. I thought Carolina last week was an easy play as the Saints were way over valued. I thought Bears coming home giving less than a field goal was also a solid wager. I ended up betting more on the Bears than anyone else by the time Sunday 1 PM rolled around. The Bengals were a public dog and darling, but I was betting on the Bears defense at home. I still think the Eagles was the correct side in that game, but they failed to come away with points too many times when deep in Niner’s territory. My big mistake was staying with the Steelers. Once the Devin Bush and Joe Haden injuries were announced, in some of my contests I had ample time to make a change. This is where my love of my team gets in the way. I thought the defense would be able to figure it out. Once Tyson Alualu and TJ Watt got hurt early in the game, the Steelers were without four defensive starters. Of course, that does not fix the problems on offense. I should have swapped off the Steelers to someone else. After all, I bad planned to play the Vikings, but missing defensive starters scared me off. Why would I do that with Minnesota, but not Pittsburgh? Oh, yeah, I was going to the Steeler game and they are my team.
In the end, I finished 2-3 in my contests, brining my season long record to 7-3, which is good enough for 68th place in the Draft Kings picks contest.
I went 2-2 in games I gave out on the Numberball.com Podcast with Jeff. Our computer model went 1-2 on premium plays. One was New Orleans and well, I went the other way as you know. Atlanta not covering after being down three-points with the ball in the fourth quarter was a weird result, but that can happen. Looking at everything and I think my process was correct on most games except sticking with the Steelers. The best part of betting on the NFL is we can learn from our mistakes and go full Ted Lasso and “be a goldfish.” We are on to week three!
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Computer Model Plays Week 3
Platinum
CHI +7
NO +3
Premium
BAL -8
IND +5.5
ATL +3
PIT -3
ARZ -7
NYJ +10.5
Regular Plays
WAS +7.5
KC -6.5LVR -4
TB -1
SEA -1.5
GB +3.5
PHI +4
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Nothing else is listed at the moment.
Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded with a $25 free bet. You have to do these things.
20% Profit Boost for every Sunday game. This is a max bet of $50, but you should use this, then bet more after. I mean why would you not take a team from -110 into plus money?
25% Profit Boost College Football Parlay. No one side can be a larger favorite than -500.
Draft Kings basically gives out free bets for any kind of casino play. I am doing this to get the free bets and using them on random things like NBA futures. Yes, the NBA season is right around the corner. I mean who does not want to use a $10 free bet on 10 football money lines and the Nuggets to win the NBA title, which becomes boosted to 130/1?
Nothing else is listed at this time.
Barstool Sportsbook
Nothing is listed at this time.
Fox Bet
There are a few smaller things mentioned, but nothing note worthy.
NFL
LAC +6.5
The Chiefs have really struggled to cover and the Chargers had so many penalties and weird red zone turnovers last week. I think the Chargers can win outright, but I will happily take the points.
College Football
Nothing at this time.
Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.
NFL Computer Model
Overall 16-17 48.48%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 3-2 60%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 3-2 60%
Our Plays
Overall 6-2 75%
NFL Odds Boosts 4-7 -275
College Football
Overall 2-1 66.66%
College Odds Boosts 1-0 +100
Win The Weekends 