Last week was pretty disappointing. I liked four games all week, but needed a fifth for my contests. I settled on the Chiefs. The Chiefs were up 11 with the ball late in the third and lost the game outright, as I am sure you know. Some weeks are much tougher than others are and some games may stand out. I thought Carolina last week was an easy play as the Saints were way over valued. I thought Bears coming home giving less than a field goal was also a solid wager. I ended up betting more on the Bears than anyone else by the time Sunday 1 PM rolled around. The Bengals were a public dog and darling, but I was betting on the Bears defense at home. I still think the Eagles was the correct side in that game, but they failed to come away with points too many times when deep in Niner’s territory. My big mistake was staying with the Steelers. Once the Devin Bush and Joe Haden injuries were announced, in some of my contests I had ample time to make a change. This is where my love of my team gets in the way. I thought the defense would be able to figure it out. Once Tyson Alualu and TJ Watt got hurt early in the game, the Steelers were without four defensive starters. Of course, that does not fix the problems on offense. I should have swapped off the Steelers to someone else. After all, I bad planned to play the Vikings, but missing defensive starters scared me off. Why would I do that with Minnesota, but not Pittsburgh? Oh, yeah, I was going to the Steeler game and they are my team.
In the end, I finished 2-3 in my contests, brining my season long record to 7-3, which is good enough for 68th place in the Draft Kings picks contest.
I went 2-2 in games I gave out on the Numberball.com Podcast with Jeff. Our computer model went 1-2 on premium plays. One was New Orleans and well, I went the other way as you know. Atlanta not covering after being down three-points with the ball in the fourth quarter was a weird result, but that can happen. Looking at everything and I think my process was correct on most games except sticking with the Steelers. The best part of betting on the NFL is we can learn from our mistakes and go full Ted Lasso and “be a goldfish.” We are on to week three!
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Computer Model Plays Week 3
Platinum
Premium
Regular Plays
HOU +8.5
Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.
1+ TD’s scored in each quarter HOU/CAR +320
I hate timed boosts. Easy Pass for me. This game also has a low total of only 43.5.
Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded with a $25 free bet. You have to do these things.
20% Profit Boost for every Sunday game. This is a max bet of $50, but you should use this, then bet more after. I mean why would you not take a team from -110 into plus money?
CMC to rush for 100+ Yards +200
CMC’s prop total is set to 84.5. CMC to rush for 100+ is +144 on another website.
Oddly, CMC does not often rush for 100+ yards. He has not done it since the 2019 season, where he did it six times. (Yes, he was hurt most of last year) In fact, he has only done it 10 out of 53 career games. If you throw out his rookie season, where he did not accomplish this feat at all, and it is 10 out of 37 games. This wager has an implied probability of hitting around 33.33% of the time. Since CMC has done this only 27% of games he has played after his rookie year, we are not getting a price I would like to take advantage. Pass for me.
Cooks to record a TD catch +220
Cooks is +185 to score a TD anytime on one site and +200 on another. Notice, this boost says to catch a TD. While the chances of him running or returning a TD are remote, they are excluded from this boost. Look, if you want to back Davis Mills throwing a TD against a sneaky good Panthers defense, go for it. I will not be doing that. Pass for me.
Darnold to throw for 300+ Yards +240
Darnold’s prop is set to 258.5. Darnold to throw for 300+ is +235 on another book. Some boost. This is an easy pass as it is barely a boost.
Barstool Sportsbook
Nothing for Thursday night NFL.
Fox Bet
Darnold 250+ Passing Yards and Panthers win +100
Darnold’s prop is set to 258.5. Darnold is -146 to throw for 250+ yards. The Panthers are large 8.5 point favorites, or as low as 7.5 depending upon where you look. This parlay pays +116 on Fan Duel, so there is no reason to bet this at +100 over on Fox Bet. Pass.
CMC 70+ Rushing Yards and to score a TD +100
CMC’s prop total is set to 84.5. CMC is -240 to run for 70+ yards tonight. CMC is also -360 to score a touchdown at any time. This parlay should pay -130. This is a pretty solid boost. You get CMC under his prop number and he is obviously expected to have several scoring opportunities. I am in. I hope your max bet is larger than mine.
Free $5 Thursday Night Bet. (Opt in required)
I use this on a long shot for first TD every week. I’ll take DJ Moore at +775 on Fox Bet.
NFL
Nothing at this time.
College Football
Nothing at this time.
Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.
NFL Computer Model
Overall 16-16 50%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 3-2 60%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 3-2 60%
Our Plays
Overall 6-2 75%
NFL Odds Boosts 4-6 -175
College Football
Overall 2-1 66.66%
College Odds Boosts 1-0 +100
Win The Weekends 