Island games are always super fun, even when they have a low total and may feature two bad teams. There are a few odds boosts to take a look at and possibly bet. The computer likes the WFT, but barely. It believe the spread should be -3.5 which is exactly what it is. When that is the case, and I personally do not have a lean on a game, I stay away.
I will update this article and add the rest of our computer model plays tomorrow. On Saturday, I will add in any odds, boosts the sites begin adding. It seems like last year they had their odds boosts ready by Thursday, but this year, they are waiting until Friday evening or even later. I wonder why they are choosing to wait. It feels odd to me. I would think they would get more traffic, if they just went ahead and posted them.
9-15-21
That was a decent start to the season.
On the Numberball NFL Rundown, I gave out six plays I liked. (Also, you should subscribe to Numberball.com for all your daily fantasy needs.)
PITT WIN
MIA WIN
ARZ WIN
PHI WIN
DEN WIN
LVR WIN
Our Computer model gave out two premium plays.
HOU WIN
MIA WIN
In the Draft Kings Pick’em contest I went 5-0.
PITT WIN
MIA WIN
DEN WIN
PHI WIN
LAR WIN
I am pretty sure I could not have drawn it up any better. A grand total of 32 people went 5-0 in the DK contest, of course I would like to win, and the $1 million that comes with winning the crown. There are over 1800 runners, so I am realistic as to what it would take to actually win. While it was nice to start the season this way, we are right back at it for week two. Sports betting is a very long grind and it never stops if you play multiple sports. One thing to keep in mind when you see me tweet my picks for the DK contest, they are avoiding ties by moving every line a half-point. This means a team that is +3 in every market may only be +2.5, or conversely +3.5 in the contest. There is no need to tweet at me, “how did you get +3.5, when I only see +3.” Believe me, I understand. As I mentioned last year on the show with Jeff Collins, there may be times a line has moved and you have to take it in the contest. Lines for most picks contest lock on Wednesday night. If major new breaks or a QB is ruled out, the line may be drastically different for what we can actually bet, yet the line for that contest is stagnant and will not change.
Just like last week, I will update this blog post throughout the week as different odds boosts are posted by the major sites. I hope that they can give us a dog we like again boosted to plus money. Even the one boost that failed, was due to injury and Fan Duel was nice enough to refund that money in site credit. I am still upset about the night two years ago, I bet an over on Jonathan Isaac of the Orlando Magic and he got hurt in under thirty seconds. It seems strange that FD decides to refund some things due to injury, but not others. I mean, the Mostert boost was their own sponsored boost, so perhaps that had something to do with it. Even though it was refunded, I am counting my suggestion to bet that boost as a loss. After all, it did not win.
Computer Model Plays
Platinum
Premium
Regular Plays
WFT -3.5
Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.
Daniel Jones to have 1+ Passing TD’s in each half +360
Jones TD prop is set to 1.5 and the under is heavily juiced at -205. This is an easy fade for me. I hate timed boosts and he is barely expected to get two passing TD’s let alone guessing on the timing. Pass.
Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded with a $25 free bet. You have to do these things.
20% Profit Boost for TNF and every Sunday game. This is a max bet of $50, but you should use this, then bet more after. I mean why would you not take a team from -110 into plus money?
33% Parlay Boost on a 3+ leg parlay. No one leg can be a larger favorite than -500. Max bet again is $50.
McLaurin to record 100+ receiving yards +265
McLaurin’s player prop is set to 67.5 yards. If you head over to FD, you can bet him to record 100+ yards at +280. This is an easy pass on the boost.
Barkley or Gibson to score a TD in first half +120
I hate timed bets and I hate either or bets. You are almost always better taking the individuals. Pass for me.
Young to record 1+ sack +100
The total sacks in this game is set to 5.5. Over on Fox Bet over 2.5 sacks by the WFT -167. This is an odd one. In their two games last year, Chase Young had one sack only. The issue is that Daniel Jones may not throw many passes if this is a low scoring grind of a game. If you think WFT wins and is ahead most of the game, then by all means fire away as Jones will have to throw. However, when games are close, low scoring and competitive, Jones sometimes does not throw much. Against the Bronco’s last week, despite being behind and throwing more than usual, Jones was only hit three times and sacked on two of them. They were all by Von Miller. This is not a slam dunk auto bet, but in fact about right on the line. I am going to avoid, but if you like WFT a ton it makes sense to be on this.
Barstool Sportsbook
WAS to lead at half time and win the game +135
If you bet this as a parlay on another site it should pay +109, so this is a boost. If you really like the WFT tonight and think they dominate or lead throughout, then you can fire away. I am staying away as it may take the backup QB some time to get acclimated, and you have to be winning at half time. Not exactly, a lot of prep time on a short week. Pass for me.
WAS to win/Gibson to score/Gibson to rush for over 67.5 Yards +350
I cannot find an exact comp here due to the yards being different and not all yardage is listed on every website. However, a parlay of WFT to win, Gibson anytime TD scorer and over 70 rushing yards should pay +258 on FD sportsbook. This is a very strong boost. You get a break on the yardage and it pays significantly more. I like it. I am in.
Fox Bet
Free $5 bet every Thursday, but must opt in. I always use it on first TD and try to make it a bigger bonus.
McLaurin and Shepard both 50+ Yards receiving +100
McLaurin is set to 67.5. Shepard is set to 57.5.
If you were to wager on the prop of their alternate receiving yards set to 50+ and parlay them it should pay +129. On the face, this seems like a good boost, but you can find better elsewhere. Pass.
*For Sunday they have the Eagles to score a TD at +100. My Max bet was $10. Maybe yours is larger, but I doubt it. Fox Bet has allowed us to bet things like this for a max of $10, but last year you could do it every day. I am not opposed to a free $40 if I can bet this every day until Sunday.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
NFL
Nothing at this time.
College Football
Nothing at this time.
Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.
NFL Computer Model
Overall 7-8 46.66%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 2-0 100%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 2-0 100%
Our Plays
Overall 4-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 3-2 +125
College Football
Overall 2-1 66.66%
College Odds Boosts 1-0 +100
Win The Weekends 