When you build a model adjusting for injury and situations can be paramount. During the NBA season, it is normal for news to break and situations to change, but it does not happen as it has today. Today was insane. If you really want to peel it back, the last 24 hours has been incredible and bizarre in the NBA. I have so many questions. Why was CP3 not vaccinated already? When did Kawhi get hurt? Was SVG that bad for the Pelicans? Should the Nets just take off game six and play for game seven? Only one of those issues comes in to play tonight. I think we all believe the Sixers are better and should beat the Hawks tonight. Now, it is clear the Jazz should roll over the Clippers in the next two days an advance. Everything does seem to be lining up for the Sixers and Jazz. Utah is the healthiest team and the Sixers, despite Embiid’s knee injury and in good shape. The Nets still may not get past the Bucks and will need healthier to get beyond the Sixers.
Therefore, we adjust for injury in our model. I put in the max adjustment metric we have and it grades out that Utah should be -10 at home against the Clippers without Kawhi.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
NBA Model Plays
PHI -7.5
UTA -7.5
NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
3×2 into the sun FD. Pass as always.
PG to score 30+ and the Clippers to win +615 (DK)
This could pay +1600 and I would not be interested. A blowout is more likely. Pass.
Embiid to lead game in scoring +100 (Fox)
Embiid has the highest prop of anyone in this game by several points and after his second half meltdown last game, I expect him to rebound with a huge game. I hope your max bet is more than mine is. I am in.
PHI/LAC to both win +400 (Fox)
Nope. This done for the Clippers. Easy Pass.
MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
deGrom to record 8+ K’s and NYM to win +110 (FD)
deGrom’s K prop for tonight is 9.5 and the under is juiced. Guess what he can miss that prop and still be fine here. This should pay -119 as a parlay, so this is a solid boost. I am in.
LAD/SF to win +200 (FD)
Two favorites with and in solid spots. This should pay +162. I am in.
Cole 8+ K’s and NYY to win +170 (DK)
Cole’s K prop is 8.5 and the under is massively juiced. This is right on the line of his predicted total and it should pay +143. While I am on the NYY, I am passing on this. If this was 7+ K’s I would be in.
TOR/ATL/HOU to all win +500 (Fox)
They always sneak a dog in and they did it with Toronto. I am not going against Cole tonight, despite the new “pitching” rules. Pass.
NYY/NYM/LAD to all win +295 (Barstool)
This should pay +247. Alright, we know baseball is messing with the pitchers, but this is a solid spot. We get the best pitcher by far and favorites in every game. I am in.
NBA
UTA -7.5
I have watched Utah blowout inferior teams this entire season. Here we go again.
UTA/PHI ML Parlay -130
MLB
Nothing at this time.
Let’s Get Weird
Sixers/Jazz/NYM to all win +141 (DK)
I shopped around and this is the best price for this wager. The Sixers and Jazz are both going to win and the NYM have the Cy Young winner pitching. I am in.
Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 74-63 54.01%
NBA Playoff Record 12-8 60%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-37 +604
Hoops Odds Boosts 64-117 +2060
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 33-25 56.89%
NBA Model Highest Rated 72-67 51.79%
NBA Model 509-484 51.25%
Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 22-40 -155
Baseball Games 7-10 -551
Baseball Parlay Record 6-10 +366
Baseball Odds boosts Record 9-21 +030
Win The Weekends 