If you noticed, the books are making a killing on odds boosts. They have been coming in with less and less frequency as the regular season ended and the playoffs began. Some of this has to do with games getting out of hand. Some of it has to do with the books using a player’s regular season numbers to base their props off. Of course, a majority of the stars are playing more minutes, but the games are much more intense. Yet, we will continue to break them down, but be aware.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
NBA Model Plays
NET +3.5
LAC +3
NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
KD +3.5 PTS/REB/ASST vs. Giannis +130 (FD)
KD’s combo is set to 47.5.
Giannis’s combo is set to 51.5 and the over is heavily juiced.
This price makes sense since you are getting the worst of it. So, I want to bet the Bucks. I really do. Nevertheless, I am scared. This should be a no-brainer spot to back the backs at home, but they looked so awful. I am passing here as I expect Giannis to be at his best, or this is a four-game series.
KD and Kyrie to combine for 65+ Points +200 (FD)
KD’s point prop is set to 32.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
Kyrie’s point prop is set to 28.5 and the under is juiced.
I hate the combined props, as you know. This is an easy pass as I believe the Bucks show some backbone.
KD and Kyrie to each score 30+ points +260 (DK)
KD’s point prop is set to 32.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
Kyrie’s point prop is set to 28.5 and the under is juiced.
If you parlay them to both score 30+ it pays +244. The story of this series has been the Nets other players scoring points. Since I am worried the Bucks, you know show up and compete a little, I am fading this. It also is barely a boost. Pass.
Gobert to record 3+ Blocks +115 (DK)
Gobert averages around 2.7 blocks per game. This is a weird boost. I am passing, but I get it if you want to fire.
KD and Mitchell to each score 25+ points +100 (Fox)
My max bet is $10, which I assume it is for most people on this super boost.
KD’s point prop is set to 32.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
Mitchell’s point prop is set to 30.5.
Normally, these boosts with low limits are a free $10 and this is set up the same way. Both guys should get there. I am in. I realize these types of boost have been losing though.
Nets and Jazz to both win +310 (Fox)
This parlay should pay +300. Some boost. This is an easy pass as I think either the Bucks or Clippers win tonight. Unless, Mike Conley magically plays in Utah. Pass.
Each team to score 110+ UTA/LAC +165 (Barstool)
The Clippers team total is set to 110.5.
The Jazz team total is set to 112.5.
If you parlay them to both go over their team total number it should pay +202. Of course, that means the Jazz went over the number they need by three points. This number is actually, either right in line with what it should pay, or slightly low. I am passing.
Each Player to score 25+ KD/Giannis/Mitchell/Kawhi +170 (Barstool)
KD’s point prop is set to 32.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
Mitchell’s point prop is set to 30.5.
Kawhi’s point prop is set to 28.5 and the under is juiced.
Giannis’s point prop is set to 33.5 and the under is juiced.
This should pay out at around -105. Obviously, this is a solid boost and everyone should get there. Every player has a prop number well above what is expected. These boosts have been getting crushed, but our process in making the wagers remains correct. This is a boost; the players are expected to be in the range or higher. I am in.
MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Scherzer to record 9+ K’s and Nats to win +200 (FD)
The Nats are solid -180 favorites tonight. Max’s K prop is set to 8.5 and the over is heavily juiced. This parlay should pay +180. Max averages around 8.5 K’s per-game with some outliers on both sides of that number. This is a smaller boost, but a correlated parlay I am interested in. You would assume Max getting to this number means the Nats have a great chance to win. I am in.
Scherzer to record 10+ K’s +155 (DK)
Max’s K prop is set to 8.5 and the over is heavily juiced. Max is +125 to record 10+K’s tonight. This is right on the border, I think nine is the appropriate number, but this is boosted and you can fire, but be aware Max has 10+ K’s in only three of 12 starts this season. I am passing. If the number is nine than he has done it in eight of 12 starts.
NATS/BOS/NYY to all win +430 (Fox)
This should pay +420 and two of the teams are tiny favorites. This is barely a boost, so I am passing. If you liked the teams before, I suppose you could fire, but meh.
BOS/OAK to both win +240 (Barstool)
Boston was one of the tiny favorites I mentioned above. Oakland is a little larger of a favorite, but this parlay should pay +218. The Red Sox are in a coin flip game and if you like, it you can fire. I am passing.
NBA
I want to bet the Bucks, I really do. However, after the last two games who knows if they even show up.
MLB
Nothing at this time.
Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.
Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 73-63 53.67%
NBA Playoff Record 11-8 57.89%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-37 +604
Hoops Odds Boosts 62-115 +1650
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 27-21 56.25%
NBA Model Highest Rated 72-66 52.17%
NBA Model 503-480 51.16%
Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 22-40 -155
Baseball Games 7-10 -551
Baseball Parlay Record 6-10 +366
Baseball Odds boosts Record 9-21 +030
Win The Weekends 