If you followed my tweet for a few weeks ago, you have the Mavs +320 and Mavs in six games at +900. I have been deciding what to do as a possible hedge situation. I think I am letting it ride. I ran through all the scenarios of how to lock up a win, but I really just think Dallas is better. The one scenario I debated is the following.
Hypothetically, to make the math easy let’s say I have $100 on Dallas and $100 on Dallas to win in six games. I have $200 invested in the Mavs in this case. If I bet something like $100 on the Clippers at+140 to win the series, it would lessen my losses for sure. However, if Dallas then wins in seven games, it would really hurt my gains.
If Dallas wins in seven games, I would win $320, but lose $200 in my Dallas in six games and Clippers to win the series hedge. That is meh to me. If I hedge with the Clippers to win the series, I would either win $120 or lose $60. That is too tight of a window and I believe I am on the correct side. I am into hedging to lock up a win, but in this case, the Mavs in six bet complicates that. I think Dallas gets it done tonight. I am not hedging.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
NBA Model Plays
DAL +3
NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Dallas to win and 210+ total points scored +275 (FD)
The total in this game is 216.5 and the Mavs are a three-point dog.
This parlay should pay +200. They have gone over 210 in only three out of the first five games. Man, is this juicy. I have so much invested in Dallas already with my Mavs to win the series at +320 and Mavs to win in six games at +900. I am passing here, but if you like, Dallas this is a great spot. I have been deciding upon hedging and how to hedge, but I am passing on this one, but obviously cheering for the Mavs tonight.
LAC ML boosted to +100 (DK)
The LAC are -143 to win tonight. This is a very good boost if you think the Clippers win tonight. I just cannot. I need the Mavs to win and I want the Mavs to win. This may be part of my hedging I do, or not. I want to let it ride.
Luka to outscore Kawhi -110 (DK)
Luka’s point prop is set to 31.5.
Kawhi’s point prop is set to 29.5.
This is a solid boost if you want to be all in on Luka tonight. I am passing here, but mainly because this is such a small boost. Luke is expected to win this battle though.
Luka and Kawhi to combine for 60+ points +100 (Fox)
Luka’s point prop is set to 31.5.
Kawhi’s point prop is set to 29.5.
Obviously, Luka has smashed this number but it is Kawhi I am worried about. I have no idea what is happening with this Clippers team, but I am fading this combined boost. I would rather parlay their overs together as usual.
Luka to record 50+ Points/Assists/Rebounds +300 (Barstool)
Luka’s combo is set to 48.5 and the over is juiced. In the first five games, Luka has reached: 64, 31, 62, 53, 52. The 31 came in the game four that Luka appeared to be hurt and the game got a little out of hand. I believe in the Mavs and I believe in Luka. I am in. This is only asking him to go over by such a small amount and boosted to a great number.
MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
NYY and CWS to both win +250 (FD)
This parlay should pay +189, but I do not like backing a questionable pitcher for the Yankee against the Red Sox offense. I am passing.
CWS/MIL/LAA to all win +305 (DK)
All three of these teams are larger favorites, but this parlay should pay +287. I have shied away from these three teamers because they always include a dog. Tonight we have three favorites and I am actually jumping in. I am in. I get the better team and the better pitcher in every spot.
NBA
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MLB
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Let’s Get Weird
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Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 72-60 54.54%
NBA Playoff Record 10-5 66.66%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-37 +604
Hoops Odds Boosts 61-110 +2050
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 27-16 62.79%
NBA Model Highest Rated 72-64 52.94%
NBA Model 502-475 51.38%
Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 21-39 -360
Baseball Games 7-10 -551
Baseball Parlay Record 5-9 +161
Baseball Odds boosts Record 9-21 +030
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