Built into the computer model is a metric we can adjust based upon injury, or schedule information. Normally this adjustment it pretty simple and helps avoid a situation where the computer loved a team, but a player was recently injured or unexpectedly out. In this case, tonight, the Celtics fall into that category. Despite adjustments, there is always a number or spread out there that the computer will feel is just slightly too large. For the Celtics and Nets it appears that Boston on the road getting 12.5 points is just too many points. If it were 11.5, the model would like the Nets, but barely. In this particular game at 12.5, it likes the Celtics, again barely. The point I am making is that betting numbers and shopping around is always vital. When we run the model if the number has been 11.5, it would have computed a different result. Shopping for numbers and situations is easier in football as there is simply more time from line opening to the start of the game.
Something else worth mentioning is bet percentages. The old school adage is if everyone is one a team, it is a horrible sign. Of course, this is not always true, but if 90% of bets and 80% of money are on one side, I want to be on the other. We are not dealing in absolutes though and football can be different from basketball. Yet, always look for signs that sharper money starts to pour in on one side of a game. This has happened a few times in the playoffs already, where we have noticed reverse line movement. (When everyone is betting a side, but the line is moving in the other direction, for example if the world appears to be on Golden State, but the line drops from -5.5 to -4.5.) Larger bets but people respected in the industry can have that affect.
Lastly, I wanted to mention the Fan Duel boost situation. Fan Duel initially had a boost saying two players to score 30+ points. In reality, they mean to add the word “each.” This massive word is missing and changes the entire situation. Two star players, barring injury, will of course combine for that many points. Fan Duel should have voided all the wagers, or pulled the boost and took their lumps. Instead, they changed the wording on bets that they already took! How can that be allowed? This is a case of operator error. They should have voided all the bets before the contest started, then reposted the wager with the correct wording. Had I bet this I would be blowing up their customer service. (I had family in from out of town and just made spread wagers this weekend.) Think about the precedent it sets that they can change the wording of bets after you make a wager. Since Fan Duel and every other company is now having sponsored wagers and boosts, this type of thing may happen more often. If someone out there has the screen shots for the bet they made, with their wager in their active wagers, then the grading of a loss, I would like to see it. Please reach out and DM me this information.
For tonight, I would be shocked if Brooklyn did not end it. The Denver series is the most perplexing to me. I think I have missed on three out of four games. Denver back home feels like a good spot to jump back on the Nuggets. If Davis does not play tonight, feels like the Lakers may be in serious trouble. While LeBron is capable of doing everything, the Suns as you know are very good. I think betting Phoenix makes sense tonight, but it feels so strange going against LeBron in a big game.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
NBA Model Plays
BOS +12.5 (I would never take Boston here.)
DEN -2
PHO -5 (Assuming AD sits.)
NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
3×2 For the Nets game. UGH.
Harden to score 25+ and Nets to win +200 (FD)
Harden’s point prop is set to 25.5 and the under is juiced.
Harden to score 25+ points and the Nets to win should pay -104. This is a massive boost. While I am worried this is a blowout and the Nets win easily, I cannot ignore this large of a boost in a spot where the Nets are going to win. This feels like betting Harden to score 25+ at +200. I am in.
Jokic and LeBron to score 30+ Each +300 (Fox)
LeBron’s point prop is set to 27.5 and the over is juiced.
LeBron is +124 to score 30+.
Jokic’s point prop was set to 31.5.
This parlay should pay +258. If LeBron is going to compete, he will need to score a ton, but I am leery the Lakers score well over 100+ points. I am passing here. I do like Jokic tonight, but it feels weird to not assume LeBron is amazing tonight.
BRK/DEN/LAL to all win +500 (Fox)
This should pay +412. The Lakers are five-point dogs in this spot and it is assuming Anthony Davis is not going to play. I am not going to back the Lakers without AD, no matter the spot. I am out.
LeBron to record a triple-double +500 (DK)
LeBron is +450 to record a triple-double on other sites. This is a tiny boost. I am passing. Look, LeBron could get there and he needs to a do a ton in order to beat the Suns. I think it is also likely the Lakers lose here in a low scoring game.
KD/Kyrie/Harden to score a combined 90+ Points +170 (Barstool)
Harden’s point prop is set to 25.5 and the under is juiced.
KD’s point prop is set to 30.5.
Kyrie’s point prop is set to 25.5
This combo is slated to score around 81.5 points. This is asking them to go over that by a pretty large number. Of course, this is combined and they crushed this number in game four. I believe a blowout is in order and since this is asking a ton, I am passing.
MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
MIN/TOR/WAS to all win +500 (Fox)
This should pay +484, so this is very small boost. The Nationals are also dogs in this spot. This is an easy pass for me.
Bieber and Glasnow to record over 18.5 K’s +160 (DK)
Bieber’s K prop is set to 8.5 and the over is heavily juiced.
Glasnow’s K prop is set to 8.5 and the under is heavily juiced.
While this is combined, the combo is expected to fall two strikeouts short. You can parlay them to both go over their prop and it pays +264. This is an easy pass for me. I hate when they combine the props. Pass.
NBA
Denver -2
I might as well get another game wrong in this series.
PHO -5
This feels like an old school 107-90 type game.
MLB
Nothing at this time.
Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.
Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 68-60 53.12%
NBA Playoff Record 6-5 54.54%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-37 +604
Hoops Odds Boosts 60-107 +2150
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 20-14 58.82%
NBA Model Highest Rated 71-64 52.59%
NBA Model 495-473 51.13%
Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 21-39 -360
Baseball Games 7-10 -551
Baseball Parlay Record 5-9 +161
Baseball Odds boosts Record 9-21 +030
Win The Weekends 