Our NBA model is 6-0 the last two days and 14-8 overall in the playoffs. Tonight is a little trickier to me. The Bucks look fantastic and will the Heat show up, or roll over. I could not back the Heat tonight at all; it feels like they are not the same team as last year and could be in for a short series.
I believe the Suns play well tonight and keep it very close with the Lakers. Phoenix is capable of winning as well, so to me and our computer model there is a lot of value on the Suns and the points tonight.
In the last game, I have no idea. It feels like the Blazers will play well at home and should control Denver, yet Jokic has been unreal. If the Denver backcourt cannot be completely terrible, they can stay in the game. I am a big believer of backing the Blazers at home, and Denver is primed to lose this series with all of their injuries.
Draft Kings also has a bet get bonus. Every day you bet $25+ on NBA you get a $5 free bet. I know for me, I love getting these tiny free bets and throwing them on something that is high variance like golf.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
NBA Model Plays
MIL -1.5
PHO +7 (Highest Rated in Model)
DEN +3.5
NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
3×2 NOPE Fan Duel.
Booker and Ayton to outscore LeBron and AD +290 (DK)
Booker’s point prop is set to 28.5.
Ayton’s point prop is set to 14.5.
Lebron’s point prop is set to 24.5.
AD’s point prop is set to 25.5.
I do not even know where to begin. How can you take the Suns side here? Booker would have to go insane, considering Ayton is inconsistent. This is an easy pass for me.
Giannis and Jokic 30+ points each +300 (Fox)
Jokic’s point prop is set to 32.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
Giannis’s point prop is set to 28.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
Will the Heat be competitive tonight? If she Giannis may be able to get there. I expect Jokic to have a huge game because he has to. This parlay should pay +222. This is very tempting honestly. I am just worried the Heat are cooked and the Bucks roll. I am out on this.
MIA/LAL/POR to all win +375 (Fox)
Imagine backing the Heat at all. This parlay should pay +348, but I cannot back the Heat at all. Yes, they could win tonight, but I do not feel like attacking that spot.
Booker and AD to each score 25+ +160 (Barstool)
Booker’s point prop is set to 28.5.
AD’s point prop is set to 25.5.
This parlay should pay +132. This is a smaller boost, but the one I am interested in playing. AD needs to play well for the Lakers to win. Booker has to score as well for the Suns to have any chance. I think both guys get going early and get there tonight. I am in.
MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
LAA to win and 8+ runs to be scored +350 (FD)
The LAA are a dog tonight against Oakland. The total in this game is set to 7.5 runs. This parlay should pay +309. I am a little surprised to see Ohtani as a dog, but liking a pitcher and the over does not exactly overlap very well. Pass for me.
STL/BAL to both win +535 (DK)
This features a tiny favorite and a sizable dog. This should pay +452. This is an easy pass with the large dog involved.
CWS/ARZ/OAK to all win +425 (Fox)
All three are favored, but Arizona is such a tiny favorite. The other two are larger favorites and this should pay +356. This is one you can fire on, but only if you like the Diamondbacks. I do not and am going to pass.
NBA
Suns +7
How healthy is Chris Paul? I am not sure, but this feels like a good spot to be on the Suns. I think the Lakers win, but this will be a very close game.
MLB
Nothing at this time.
Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.
Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 68-57 53.6%
NBA Playoff Record 6-2 75%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-37 +604
Hoops Odds Boosts 60-103 +2550
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 14-8 63.63%
NBA Model Highest Rated 71-61 53.78%
NBA Model 488-464 51.26%
Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 21-38 -260
Baseball Games 7-10 -551
Baseball Parlay Record 5-8 +261
Baseball Odds boosts Record 9-21 +030
Win The Weekends 