The last slate before the all-star break always makes me sad. What are we to do with no NBA for a few days? This is the time to start digging into college hoops a little more. Now, I know in a normal year this break occurs like three weeks ago. However, with the schedule changed we can only deal with what we have. I will really enjoy NBA in the Summer months though.
Please be aware that right before breaks things can get wonky. People rest, people sit random things happen, as teams prepare to regroup for a few days. Keep all of that in mind if lines shift dramatically throughout the day.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
NBA Model Plays
TOR +8.5
LAC -6
DET +7 (Highest Rated in Model)
IND +4.5
MEM +5.5
NOP -2.5
OKC +6.5
SAC +4.5
NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
3×2 Boost Heat and Pelicans +100
No. Never. When I see data as to how many threes are taken in the first three minutes I will consider this.
Zion to score 30+ and Pelicans to win +370 (FD)
Zion’s points prop is set to 26.5 and the over is juiced. If you parlay Zion to go over his prop and the Pelicans to win, it pays around +225.
Zion is +154 to score 30+ points tonight. If you parlay that and the Pelicans to win it pays +251.
Zion has scored 30+ in nine of 34 games, roughly 26.4% of the games he has played this season. This is actually pretty good all things considered. Competitive game with a small spread and Zion has flirted with this number plenty of times. I am going to wait and see injury info for the Heat as Butler and Bam are questionable, but I am intrigued. Patients here for now.
Curry and Booker to combine for over 7.5 made threes +130 (DK)
People are resting here as this game is off the board. I will update later.
Zion over 3.5 dunks and Pelicans to win +400 (DK)
Zion has 69 dunks in 34 games. To put this another way Zion averages 2.02 dunks per game this season. Not only would be need to all but double what he normally does, the Pelicans need to win. Pass.
Giannis and Ja 1 or more dunk each +100 (Fox)
Giannis is a lock to dunk. Ja has 12 dunks in 23 games. Ehh, this needs to be closer +200 just like an Embiid prop. Pass.
Celtics/Clippers/Nuggets all to win +200 (Fox)
This pays +199 on Fan Duel. Meh, not much of a boost. Pass.
Jokic and Giannis to score 30+ points +350 (Fox)
Jokic’s point prop is set to 26.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
Giannis point prop is set to 31.5.
If you parlay the over on both of these, it pays +261.
Giannis is -166 to score 30+ and Jokic is +154 to do the same. If you parlay them to both score 30+, it pays +307. This is a boost, but is not exactly something I am lining up to play. Pass.
Jaylen Brown and Jamal Murray to each make a dunk and a three +900 (Fox)
Brown has 12 dunks in 32 games.
Brown averages a little over two made threes per game this season.
Murray has nine dunks in 33 games this season.
Murray averages a little over 2.5-made threes per game this season.
You are basically betting on two guys who do not dunk that often to each dunk tonight. Pass.
NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Michigan/Baylor/WVU to all win by 10+ points +340 (DK)
Michigan is -12.
Baylor is -12.
WVU is -13.
So, this may seem great on the surface, you get a deal on every line. However, if you parlay them to cover their current spread this parlay pays +608. I would say that is pretty wild of a difference.
Using alternative points spread with each school set to -10, this should pay around +292. Yes, this is a boost and I get why you would be interested. However, I would rather give the extra few points to almost double your pay out. If you do play this I do not blame you, but I am passing.
Texas to lead at halftime and Oklahoma to win +830 (DK)
I hate bets like this where you can get it right, but also be wrong. This is threading a tiny needle. Pass.
NBA
DET +7
Yes, I know they are missing a bunch of people, but I am rolling with the model here.
NCAAB
Nothing at this time.
Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.
Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 29-28 50.87%
NCAA Record 9-13 40.9%
Hoops Parlay Record 7-15 -245
Hoops Odds Boosts 28-41 +1995
Hoops Player Props 4-2 +530
NBA Model Highest Rated 34-27 55.73%
NBA Model 200-214 48.30%
Win The Weekends 