Monday mornings are always better when your 45/1 Collin Morikawa comes in. I was set to be disappointed again, as yesterday could have been the second time one of our runners had the lead after round three and lost this season. Instead, Morikawa came through and we cashed some tickets!
After some weak offerings and canceled odds boosts to due late scratches, tonight we have some interesting options!
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
NBA Model Plays
ORL +6
IND +4.5
NOP +7
SAS +5.5
HOU -2.5
CHI +4.5
CHA +6.5 (Highest Rated in model, but is also a road back-to-back.)
NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Zion to record 30+ points and 10+ Rebounds +385 (FD)
Zion’s points prop is set to 26.5 and the under is juiced.
Zion’s rebound prop is set to 7.5 and the under is juiced.
You can parlay the over on both for +167.
Zion is +174 to score 30+ points.
Zion is +220 to record 10+ rebounds.
If you parlay them, it pays +385. This is not a boost at all. Pass.
Dame to score 35+ points and Portland to win +290 (FD)
Dame’s points prop is set to 31.5 and the over is juiced.
Dame to hit the over and Portland to win pays +131.
Dame is +146 to score 35+ points.
If you parlay them, it plays +186. In this case, three points is worth a nice little boost. This is a road back-to-back for the Hornets. Dame has scored over 35 in 10 out of 33 games. This right in line with where it should be. I think Portland wins a high scoring game here and I am in on this. Fire it up!
LaMelo and Dame to make over 7.5 combined threes +205 (DK)
Dame’s made three props is set to 4.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
Dame to make 5+ threes pays -118 on Fan Duel.
Due to injury concerns, the Hornets do not have any player props listed.
LaMelo has made 2.7 threes per game since February 1st. This is right on the line here, but if I like the last boost, it would only make sense to like this one. Dame should make 5+ threes here and we may only need 1-2 from LaMelo. This game also has a nice total of 232.5 points. I am in.
Zion over 2.5 Dunks and Pelicans to win +680 (DK)
This is right in line for dunks for Zion, but being a dog to the hottest team in the NBA. Pass.
Sixers/Jazz/Nets to all win +225 (Fox)
This is a tiny boost as it pays +217 on Fan Duel. This feels dangerous playing so many short favorites, including two on the road. Pass.
Luka/Jokic/Mitchell 25+ points each +300 (Fox)
Luka’s point prop is set to 29.5.
Luka is -330 to score 25+ points.
Jokic’s point prop is set to 26.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
Jokic is -188 to score 25+ points.
Mitchell’s point prop is set to 26.5.
Mitchell is -178 to score 25+ points.
If you parlay all three to score 25+ points it pays +212. All three player need to just miss their prop. I am in.
Embiid/Gobert/LaVine 1 + dunks each +200
Embiid is always in doubt with dunk props. Pass here.
NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Oklahoma/STL/SYR all to win +400 (DK)
OK -1.5 (-124)
STL -10.5 (-560)
SYR +1.5 (+100)
This is a slight boost as this parlay pays +326 on Fan Duel. I am not a fan as always of tiny favorites or dogs unless you already liked them. Pass for me.
NBA
CHA +6.5
The Hornets are 4-3 on back-to-backs and while I do think Portland wins, this will be close and competitive. I also trust the model. I wonder if anyone sits/returns for Charlotte.
NCAAB
Richmond -14.5
St. Joe’s is 3-14 and has been awful on the road this year.
Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.
Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 27-27 50%
NCAA Record 9-12 42.85%
Hoops Parlay Record 7-15 -245
Hoops Odds Boosts 25-36 +1910
Hoops Player Props 4-2 +530
NBA Model Highest Rated 31-27 53.44%
NBA Model 189-204 48.09%
Win The Weekends 