I find it a little bizarre that with so many NBA games we got such a weak odds boost offering today. I suppose they had to avoid the Kings/Nets game since the total is insane and neither team has the ability to stop anyone.
I was very lucky and got an NBA Top Shot pack last night. When the line was randomized, I found myself at 3805. On Saturday when they did the same, I was 6311. I missed a pack by about 60 people that night. Last night I pulled an Ibaka, Theis and Anthony Davis. I sold the first two for $35 and $30 and have the AD on the market now for somewhere in the high $300’s. Not bad for a $9 pack. I have been slowly building up information on what has been happening with NBA Top Shot and what I have been doing with it. If you listened back on January 14 when I said buy packs, you are up a bunch. A more detailed article and podcast are coming. The NBA Top Shot world just moves so quickly.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
NBA Model Plays
CLE +7.5
DET +3.5 (Highest Rated in Model)
NYK +3
BOS -2
BRK -6
TOR +1.5
MIL -11
DEN -6
WAS +12
NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Tatum and Brown to score 25+ points +270 (FD)
Tatum’s point prop is set to 24.5 and the over is juiced. Brown’s point prop is set to 23.5 and the under is juiced. If you parlay them to both go over it pays +249.
If you parlay them to both score 30+, it pays +267. While I do like this combination, in this space we have to decide if a boost is worth it. In this case it barely is. This boost is paying you an extra $3 for every hundred wagered. If you factor in that the boost has a $50 limit, you are obviously better off playing them parlayed together. Pass on the boost.
Lillard to score 40+ Points +480 (FD)
This is a road back-to-back in Denver. Also known as the toughest back-to-back in the NBA. Pass. Just for the sake of an argument. Lillard is +400 to score 40+ points and his point prop is set to 31.5, so this is a boost. However, this is an awful spot. Pass.
Fan Duel also has two of those 3×2 boosts. Pass.
Lillard to score 30+ Points and make 5+ threes +190 (DK)
See above. In addition, this should pay around +195 parlayed together. Pass.
Luka and Tatum to combine for 65+ points +240 (DK)
Tatum’s point prop is set to 24.5 and the over is juiced. Luka’s point prop is not yet listed, but I will be kind and say it is set to 30.5 at -110. That is probably a little high anyway. If you parlay Luka over that number with Tatum’s point prop, it should pay +253. That is also a number that is 10 points short of what you need for this boost. If we try to parlay Tatum to score 30+ with someone like Dame to score 35+ it should pay around +738. Not a 100% fair comparison, but not that far off either. This boost is way off and should be avoided.
Giannis and Embiid 1 or more dunks each +100 (Fox Bet)
Giannis is a lock for this. Embiid dunks roughly every other game, as we know from looking at data. Embiid did not dunk in the last Sixer game. I am in.
Nets/Sixers/Mavs all to win +450 (Fox Bet)
This should pay around +412 and I like the Sixers and Nets to win tonight. However, this is a back-to-back for the Mavs and a rested Boston team comes to town. I like Boston tonight so I will be passing.
NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
WVU/OK/Nova all to win -110 (DK)
WVU -7.5 (-320)
OK -10.5 (-560)
Nova -11 (-620)
This parlayed together should pay around -126. I am in.
25% Profit boost on any one college game (DK)
NBA
DET +3.5
I am in in following the model’s top rated play.
PHI -1.5
They are not losing two in a row to the Raptors. They shot awfully the last game.
NCAAB
Nothing at this time.
Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.
Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 22-24 47.82%
NCAA Record 9-12 42.85%
Hoops Parlay Record 6-14 -336
Hoops Odds Boosts 23-29 +2270
Hoops Player Props 4-2 +530
NBA Model Highest Rated 29-22 56.86%
NBA Model 167-178 48.40%
Win The Weekends 