We were a last second bad call, or a waved off put bank dunk away from an excellent night. Oh well. We are right back at it tonight.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
NBA Model Plays
HOU +1.5
MEM +5.5 (Highest Rated in the model)
OKC +6.5
POR +6
CHA +12
LAL -7
NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Lebron to score 30+ and record 10+ assists +170 (FD)
Lebron’s point prop is set to 31.5 points and the under is juiced. Lebron’s assist prop is set to 9.5 and the over is juiced. You can parlay the over on both of these for +190, which is two more points than the boost. Lebron is also -166 to score 30+ points. If you parlay Lebron to score 30+ and go over 9.5 assists that pays +146. This boost is pretty good. However, Lebron has one game of 30+ points and 10+ assists. That game was a double-overtime game against the Pistons. All this is adding up to a pass from me.
Mitchell to score 30+ and Jazz to win +250 (FD)
Mitchell’s point prop is set to 25.5 and the over is juiced. If you parlay the over and the Jazz money line it would pay -103. Mitchell is +178 to score 30+ points on Fan Duel. If you parlay Mitchell to score 30+ and the Jazz to win it pays +177. Mitchell has scored 30+ in seven out of 28 games this season. While this is a decent price we have to account for the fact the Jazz are large favorites. This feels like a game that could easily blowout. Pass.
LaMelo over 29.5 points/assists/rebounds +110 (DK)
LaMelo’s points/assists/rebounds prop on Fan Duel is set to 29.5 and the over is set to -115.
LaMelo’s points prop is set to 16.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
LaMelo’s assist prop is set to 6.5 and the over is heavily juiced.
LaMelo’s rebound prop is set to 5.5 and the over is heavily juiced.
If you parlay the over on all three of these props, it pays +258. In a blowout against the Jazz in early February LaMelo went for 34/8/4 stat line. Despite the large spread, this is a boost that should be minus money, but pays plus money. The line and numbers are fair and as long as there I no foul trouble, like he has in his last game, Ball has a great chance to get there. I am in.
Lebron to record triple double +275 (DK)
LeBron is +210 to record a triple double so this is a decent boost. However, how likely is Lebron to get a triple double? Lebron has a grand total of three triple doubles this season. Yes, I realize this is the Wizards and Anthony Davis is out, but this is a pass.
Luke and Dame to score 30 or more each +200 (Fox Bet)
Dame’s points prop is set to 31.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
Dame is -188 to score 30+ points on Fan Duel.
Porzingis was just moved to questionable and the Luka props, well all the Mavs props are down.
If Porzingis is out, you are taking this boost. It was solid with Dame, so I can assume it would be better if Luka were alone. I am in, unless something changes.
Mavs/Heat/Suns to all win +210 (Fox Bet)
This should pay +176 and is not bad. However, I am on Memphis so pass.
Porzingis and Mitchell 1 or more dunk each +400 (Fox Bet)
Pass. Blowout chance where Mitchell may not get there. Porzingis is now questionable.
Wall to record a double-double +320 (Fox Bet)
Wall’s point prop is set to 24.5 and the under is juiced.
Wall’s assist prop is set to 7.5 and the under is juiced.
If you parlay Wall to go over both these numbers it pays +189.
Wall to score 15+ and go over 7.5 assists pays -109.
Wall is +260 to get 10+ assists.
If you parlay Wall to go over 15+ points and get 10+ assists, it pays +242.
Wall has one game of 10 or more assists since joining the Rockets. Having said all of that. Boogie Cousins is out. Victor Oladipo is out. Wall is going to play 35 or so minutes in a competitive game against a team that struggles defensively. This is a good boost since the points are not in doubt. The assists will be the issue of course, but I am willing to take the gamble. I am in.
LaMelo triple double +1900 (Fox Bet)
He is +2000 on Fan Duel. LOL.
Lebron to record a triple double +250 (Fox Bet)
The DK boost is better, but pass on both.
NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
USC/TT both to win +180 (DK)
This should pay close to +138, but contains to small favorites, including one on the road. Pass for me.
NBA
Memphis +5.5
Model loves them. I bet them. (Porzingis was moved to questionable)
NCAAB
Drake -11
They were up 20+ yesterday all game long until the bench almost blew the cover.
Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.
Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 22-23 48.88%
NCAA Record 9-12 42.85%
Hoops Parlay Record 6-14 -336
Hoops Odds Boosts 22-28 +2360
Hoops Player Props 4-2 +530
NBA Model Highest Rated 29-21 58%
NBA Model 167-172 49.26%
Win The Weekends 