I hope you are following us on Twitter as we had that Nerlens Noel situation come up. He was clearly mispriced to score 10+ points on Fan Duel and we took advantage! We are now 4-1 on player props for the NBA season good for +630. The Noel wins more than made up for the boost we recommended that did not come in. I hope that you listened and stayed away from Drake yesterday too!
We have a free money alert on Draft Kings! Bet the over on Lakers and Nuggets game that is today and for every wager on the over, the total drops one point. This is max bet of $25, but will be a free $25. Go and get your free money. It is currently over zero points. Yes, zero points.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
NBA Model Plays
BOS -6.5
MIN +8
DET +4.5
CHA +2
POR +5 (Highest Rated in the Model)
MIL -11.5
ORL +10.5
CLE +11.5
DEN +3.5
MEM -1
NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Lillard and Luka to both score 30+ points +230 (FD)
Lillard’s point prop is set to 30.5 and the over is juiced. Luka’s point prop is set to 29.5 and the over is slightly juiced. You can parlay them at +230, meaning you get a slight break of one point on Dame if you bet the prop. On Fan Duel as well both are minus money to score 30+ and those two parlayed together only pays +191. This boost is appropriately priced and I like the massive total. This is not as good as other night, but I am in.
Kawhi or Sexton first basket +220 (FD)
Never ever betting first basket wagers.
Blake Griffin to record a dunk +500 (DK)
Blake has zero dunks in 20 games this year. Pass.
Lillard and Luka to each make over 2.5 threes +175 (DK)
Luka’s made threes prop is set to 2.5 and the Under is heavily juiced. Lillard’s made threes prop is set to 4.5 and the under is heavily juiced. You can parlay them to both go over their props for +297 on Fan Duel. Lillard is -700 to make three or more threes on Fan Duel. You can parlay them to both make three or more threes for +129. This is actually a decent boost since it seems that Lillard is a lock to get there. I will happily take Luka to make over 2.5 threes at +175, which is basically what this is. I know he has been down this year shooting from distance, but his numbers have improved recently and Portland wants to play fast and take a bunch of threes as well. I am in.
Jokic or Lebron to record a triple double +110 (DK)
This is another situation where you are better off betting them to each get a triple double.
Lebron is +490. Jokic is +320.
If you bet, this boost and one or both get there you make +$110.
However, if you bet them to each get there.
$100 on Lebron and $100 on Jokic pays +490 if Lebron gets there.
Wagered $200, win $290.
$100 on Lebron and $100 on Jokic pays +320 if Jokic gets there.
Wagered $200 win $320. This is still more than the boost.
Now, if both get there you win +810. The downside is if neither get there, you lose both. Either bet both of them or pass on this boost. I am passing.
Mavs/Bucks/Pelicans to all win +175 (Fox Bet)
This is a decent boost that should pay around +155. If I did not like the Blazers and the points, I would be on this. Feel free to fire away if you want, but it is a no for me.
Lillard/Giannis/Luka all to score 30+ points +450 (Fox Bet)
We covered above that Lillard and Luka are in good shape. The Greek Freak’s points prop is set to 30.5 and the under is juiced. Even if you liked Giannis and felt that the Thunder keep it close, this should pay around +621. As you can see, it is no where near it should be. Pass.
Zion/Giannis/Lebron 2 or more dunks each (Fox Bet)
I hate these dunk props. Pass.
NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Michigan and Cincy to win +200 (DK)
This should pay around +172, but I am not into backing one-point road favorites in college basketball. I am looking at you Michigan. Pass.
NBA
Portland +5
Dallas defense is suspect and Portland is scoring a ton as well. Portland can win this game. I trust the model.
Milwaukee -11.5
The Bucks coming off a loss against a bad team was one of the best bets in the NBA last year. Love them today.
NCAAB
Nothing at this time.
Let’s Get Weird
I threw a little sprinkle on Daniel Berger at +550 to win at Pebble Beach. I have Kevin Streelman from before the tourney started to win and top ten and one of those is alive.
Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 20-18 52.63%
NCAA Record 8-11 42.10%
Hoops Parlay Record 6-12 -136
Hoops Odds Boosts 13-19 +1535
Hoops Player Props 4-1 +630
NBA Model Highest Rated 22-20 52.38%
NBA Model 139-143 49.29%
NFL
2020 Season Record
Playoffs 9-4 69.23%
Overall 147-111 56.97%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 24-15 61.54%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 26-20 56.52%
Win The Weekends 