We have a guest post today about the Pegasus World Cup in the world of horse racing. Joining us for this post is Matt Sortino! Give it a read as we continue to build the pile!
By Matt Sortino From the Into the Bit Pod (Subscribe here)
Horse racing will make an appearance on national television today when the Pegasus World Cup, one of the richest races in the United States, runs this afternoon from Gulfstream Park in Florida. NBC will carry at least the final two races, the Turf Invitational & the headlining World Cup Invitational, live with post time for the Turf set for 5pm eastern time.
Race 11 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational – 1 3/16 miles on the Turf – Purse is $1million – horses four years old and up
This race is considered a grade one, which in America, is the highest level of race that we have. With that said, this race to me is a grade one in name, not so much in talent. The favorite is expected to be #5 Colonel Liam with the country’s top jockey Irad Ortiz Jr riding for trainer Todd Pletcher. This four-year old was a last out winner in a restricted stakes race and steps up in class here against a full field of older horses and does not have any distinct speed or pace advantage. The horse can absolutely win, but it won’t be getting my money as the favorite as I am usually looking for value. I will start my play through #8 Anothertwistoffate, a west-coast based horse for trainer Peter Miller, ridden by Joel Rosario. This 5 year-old has already raced this year, beating a field of 7 in the Grade 2 San Gabriel back in early January. He popped a career best 103 beyer speed figure, and did it without the aid of Lasix (a common race day medication that is prohibited in stakes races at Gulfstream this year). He should be very involved in the pace from the beginning and will have every chance when they turn for home, any improvement from his last race makes him very difficult in here. I am also interested in #6 Largent, another Pletcher entry ridden by Paco Lopez, who comes in second off a little layoff and a last out winner beating a field of 10 in the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale Stakes in December at this track in Florida. That was also a career best speed figure and this horse will be mid-pack early so if they go fast up front, he has a great chance to run them all down in the lane. If you are playing the pick4, or the pick5, both of which have $750k guaranteed pools on this day, I would use both of the horses listed above, along with #4 North Dakota and #2 Breaking the Rules.
Race 12 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Grade 1 – 1 1/8 Miles on Dirt – Purse #3 Million, for four year olds and up
This is one of the richest races in the country and it typically draws the best horses that are still racing and have not gone off to the breeding shed. With that said, again, we have seen better fields in the past and in general, there isn’t a ton to get excited about here. The conversation starts with the heavy favorite, #4 Knicks Go, for trainer Brad Cox. This horse has run 3 excellent races in a row since entering the Brad Cox barn and shows no signs of slowing down. While most of us are skeptical of how exactly Brad Cox is stepping this horse forward, there is no denying the improvement, as evidenced by the blowout win in the Breeders Cup Mile in November. He hasn’t raced since then, and he hasn’t gone this distance before, so he is vulnerable, but if he runs his best race, he will win and will probably win easily.
If you want value, or if you just want to have something to root for that isn’t the favorite, here are a few I would consider. I like #2 Coastal Defense at 15-1 on the morning line running his first race as a 5 year old for trainer Dale Romans, who is known to spice up these big racing days with some prices. He has races that are competitive here, including his last effort in the Grade 1 Clark, where he didn’t get the best trip. If he steps forward, he could win. Red hot trainer Danny Gargan will send in Tax, another making his first start as a 5 year old, but this horse we saw run for roses in the Kentucky Derby in 2019. He didn’t run well that day, but came back and showed improvement in the Belmont Stakes and has run some nice races since then. He has the best chance to run down the favorite late in the lane if Knicks Go is struggling with the distance.
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