Only having two NBA games tonight feels weird. I much prefer six to eight games every night. Instead, we have two. There is one odds boost I am recommending tonight, over on Fox Bet.
Last night could have been awesome as we were set up nicely. The three-team parlay closing with the Lakers money line allowed me to take the Warriors +8.5 and try to middle the game. The Lakers blew a lead and ended up losing. I broke even then. Anytime I can take zero risk into the late games with a chance to win a straight bet and a parlay I am going to do it. A quick math break down for you. I am using $100 as the wager amount to make the math clear and easy for everyone.
Wager 1 $100 parlay Knicks ML/Hawks ML/Lakers ML +332
A win pays $332
A loss -$100
Wager 2 $110 Golden State Warriors +8.5
A win pays $100
A loss -$110
If Lakers lose net result $0
If Lakers win net result $332-$110 = +$232
If Lakers win by 1-8 points net result $332 +$100 = +$432
This is why we middle games. A large window was created to win both wagers with zero risk after the first two games came in. If Lebron James hits that three at the buzzer, sweep the board.
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NBA Model Plays
OKC +10 (Highest rated in the model)
NOR +6
NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting.
Zion to score 30+ points +500 (FD)
Zion’s points prop is around 22.5 today, so this is asking a lot in a game with 217.5 total, while also playing in Utah. Zion has two 30-point performances in 11 games this year. Pass for me.
Jokic to record a triple double and Nuggets win +250 (FD)
Jokic is +175 to record a triple double on Draft Kings and adding the money line is not terrible at -530. The down side is the game would have to be competitive for Jokic to get there. Despite what you might think of the Thunder, they are 5-1 on the road this year and have been competitive in every game. I would rather just play the triple double prop instead of this boost. In the same game parlay section of player props, this is already listed at +235. Such a tiny boost. Pass
Zion Over 2.5 Dunks +140 (DK)
I hate this prop and all dunk props. If I put my kids to bed and want to check on this, I cannot check a box score. I have to go and read the play-by-play instead to scroll and see if it happened. Fox Bet loves the dunk props. One time last year, they had a Jaylen Brown and Ja Morant to dunk combo prop. Fox Bet left the odds boost up, even after Memphis had played and Morant had dunked. It was a $50 max bet, but it was fun to fire and win after half of the prop was already in. I think it paid like +210 or something similar.
Jokic over 45.5 combined points/assists/rebounds and the Nuggets to win +125
You can bet this number without the Nuggets needing to win at -113 on Fan Duel. Pass.
Zion/Jokic/Mitchell 1+ dunks each +1000 (Fox Bet)
I mean, at least this is better than the DK dunk boost. I am not playing these.
Jokic triple double and the Nuggets to win +250 (Fox Bet)
When every site lists a similar odds boost, it has a tendency to lose. They did this with Curry last week too and Seattle Seahawks in the NFL Playoffs. Pass.
Jamal Murray to record a double double +1100 (Fox Bet)
Murray had zero double doubles this season. Murray has missed by one rebound or one assist twice though. Fox Bet has the same boost for Donovan Mitchell and he also has zero double doubles. Pass.
Jamal Murray and Brandon Ingram 20+ Points each +150 (Fox Bet)
Over on Fan Duel Murray’s points prop is 21.5 and Ingram’s is 22.5. For this bet, you get a slight break on each players points prop and it pays +150. I am in on this!
NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Nothing worth mentioning.
NBA
Nothing at this time.
NCAAB
Nothing at this time.
Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.
NFL
2020 Season Record
Playoffs 7-3 70%
Overall 145-110 56.86%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 24-15 61.54%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 26-20 56.52%
Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 10-9 52.63%
NCAA Record 4-8 33.33%
Hoops Parlay Record 2-8 -329
Hoops Odds Boosts 3-8 -340
Hoops Player Props 1-1 +000
NBA Model 51-46 52.25%
Win The Weekends 