On Sunday October 11, the Los Angeles Lakers won the NBA Championship. On Monday October 12, I made my first wager for this upcoming season. I saw the Golden State Warriors as excellent bounce back candidates. The Warriors were listed at +1400 to win the NBA title. A healthy Klay Thompson, Steph Curry and Draymond Green along with the second pick in the draft and a large trade exception. Sign me up! Every other team that went deep in the playoffs would be facing the shortest rest in NBA history before the season started. The Warriors essentially took the entire season off after their marathon stretch of NBA titles and deep playoff runs.
The Warriors odds had dropped to around +800 to win the title. I felt like I had great value. Remember, it is not always about picking the winner, but getting the best value on a bet that you can always hedge.
Then Klay Thompson got hurt.
At this point, I could just bemoan the situation and realize I was stuck with a ticket that seemed less likely to ever come to fruition, or I could add more at a better number. Guess what I picked? Jeff Collins laid out a solid argument, as to why the Warriors could still contend and obviously, I did not need a lot of pushing to agree as I was on the Warriors before the Klay injury. You should listen to Jeff’s NBA season preview pods that can be found here and here.
Now, I have the Warriors at +1400 and +2500. I also bet the Warriors to make the playoffs at -151.
Maybe I am crazy, but if Kelly Oubre and Andrew Wiggins can be 90% of what Klay Thompson and Andrew Iguodola were on the original Warriors teams, they can compete. Factor in that James Wiseman is the great unknown. He could be amazing and the Warriors seem to think he just might be, then why can’t Golden State? The Warriors still own Minnesota’s top three protected pick in 2021 and if it carries over it is unprotected in 2022. That pick has a tremendous amount of value and if Golden State is in the thick of things comes March and could be flipped for a real asset. If the Warriors ended up as a top three seed in the Western Conference it would not shock me.
I always like to have a team on each side of the league for a futures ticket and picking an Eastern Conference runner, with odds that I like has not been easy. However, one team has clearly gotten significantly better, and may improve during the season. Here is a quick rundown of how everyone finished the regular season last year in the East.
1. Milwaukee
2. Toronto
3. Boston
4. Indiana
5. Miami
6. Philly
7. Brooklyn
8. Orlando
9. Charlotte
10. Washington
11. Chicago
12. New York
13. Detroit
14. Atlanta
15. Cleveland
We can eliminate many of these teams easily. While Atlanta, Washington and Charlotte will be a lot better, none of them will contend to actually win the East. Brooklyn is the obvious easy choice as most improved, but I am not looking at any team that has a first time coach and Kyrie Irving figuring prominently.
Before last season many people, including myself were very high on the Sixers. Plenty of NBA media also picked them to win the East. Now ask yourself, are they better now than last year?
The Sixers added the following off the court.
One of the best GM’s in the league in Daryl Morey.
One of the most respected coaches in the league in Doc Rivers.
No matter your opinion on them, they are both significant upgrades at their respective positions and professionals who will make an immediate impact.
On the court, the Sixers flipped Josh Richardson for Seth Curry. Turned Al Horford’s contract into Danny Green. Add in a few draft picks for depth and the Sixers are primed to be the team they were supposed to be last year.
Oh yeah, they may also flip Ben Simmons for James Harden in the future. My belief is the Sixers want to see how their newly built roster with a brand new head coach may look. The Philadelphia schedule appears to be very soft at the start. Just look at this.
Wash
NY
Cle
Tor
Orl
Char
Char
Wash
Brk
The Sixers could start strong and be 8-0 before playing the Nets in early January. This is a long explanation to say that I bet the Sixers at +2500 to win the NBA title. They are already down to +1700 in most spots.
My Predictions for the NBA Season
Best Record Milwaukee Bucks
Worst Record Detroit Pistons
Most Improved Player Ja Morant
Rookie of the Year LaMelo Ball
MVP Luka (But I don’t like any of the bets)
Eastern Conference Sixers Over Bucks
Western Conference Lakers over Mavs
NBA Finals Lakers over Sixers
My Bets
Warriors NBA Champions +1400 and +2500
Sixers NBA Champions +2500
Warriors to make playoffs -151
Most Improved Player Ja Morant +2400
I will be posting more wagers through the season and tracking them here. I have avoided any win total or win percentage bets due to the unknown schedule in the future. Plus, if my money is going to be tied up for a long time frame, I prefer it be for bigger payouts. Yes, I did have the Lakers at +400 for a long time last year though, but that was pre-pandemic.
NBA Record
0-0 0%
NCAA Record
0-0 0%
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