Last week was all about the favorites. The public, which generally bets favorites, had a fantastic week. Conversely, when that happens, I normally have a down week. I bet for value and situations that are advantageous. The more valuable situations have a tendency to be teams that are getting more points than they should be. I personally, had a horrible week picking games against the spread. The model however, was just fine and almost had an amazing weekend.
Platinum plays went 0-2 with Minnesota and New England losing. The Vikings, I believe, may be a hole in my model and a blind spot for me. Clearly, after two weeks the Vikings are overvalued compared to how they are currently constructed. In terms of the Patriots, well, if Cam gets one more yard that game comes in. After two weeks, our recommended plays (Platinum and Premium) are 7-2 overall. Premium plays did go 3-0 last week and moved to 6-0 on the season.
This is a week I would be careful as a sports bettor. What you think you have watched may not be completely correct. Always remember that football and the NFL are small sample size games. Fluke plays and strange situations can come up at any time and alter everything.
One thing I want to point out is that now we are into week three and it seems the major sports books have slowly stopped easily winnable odds boosts. Just because a site is sending you an alert and mentioning an odds boost does not mean you have to bet it. Frankly, some of them are awful. Last week the sites started to unveil their boosts late on Friday heading into the weekend. I am not sure why they are delayed. Maybe injury information or Covid concerns. After all, they could hang an odds boost, have someone ruled out and make a boost a sure thing without the intention to do so.
Games I Will Bet
Pats -6.5
I Mentioned this on the podcast with Jeff Collins this week. Raiders played late game Monday and now travel cross-country to play a 1 PM Eastern start against the best coach of all time. The Raiders still cannot really stop anyone either.
Denver +6
I will happily take the home dog here. The model feels this is too many points and I agree. Is Tampa actually any good? I know Denver will struggle to score, but Brady has been average at best.
Week 3 Odds Boost You Should Consider
Draft Kings
20% odds boost on any one single game. Just like last week, pick your favorite game and boost the odds. If you like a dog, I would boost up their money line odds for a larger payout.
Fan Duel
Nothing yet. The sites have been slower and slower to release these boosts. I wonder why.
Fox Bet
Ben Roethlisberger 2 or more passing TD’s +200. Ben has two or more TD’s in both of the first two games. Max bet is $25.
Week 3 Plays
Platinum
Dallas +5
Premium
NE -6
SF -4
CHI +4
NYJ +10.5
DEN +6
Regular Plays
Mia +3
LAR +2.5
HOU +4
MIN +2.5
WAS +7
PHI -6
CAR +6.5
DET +5.5
GB +3
BAL-3.5
2020 Season Record
Overall 16-16 50%
Platinum 1-2 33.33%
Premium 6-0 100%
Win The Weekends 