NFL Week 1 Odds Boosts You Should Bet and Computer Model Plays

We are back!

Where have we been? Well, it is a long story, but I can give you the short version. Last year in the middle of the NFL season, we began contributing to Numberbet.com. All of our data and model outputs were published on their site. While we are still contributing to Number Bet this year, our football data and NFL plays will be posted in this space. Make sure you listen to the brand new Number Bet podcast with Jeff Collins and myself that will be coming out every week! On this site, I will also mention any and all odds boost you should be taking advantage of for the upcoming week of football and of course maybe some NBA stuff too. Make sure you are following me on twitter as well.

Why does our computer model matter? Well, beating the NFL is difficult and our model has been successful at being profitable. Getting over 53% is the line to beat the house juice (The -10 in the -110 on most lines) and make anyone a profitable bettor.  Our computer model has never finished under 50% picking almost every game in the entire NFL season against the spread. We label everything in categories. Platinum is the highest level the model will recommend to place a wager. Premium is just below platinum, then everything else is a just a regular play. The beauty of sports betting though is that this is all your choice and decision. Our model will tell you whom it likes, but the bankroll management and actually placing bets is on you. I can tell you what my thought process is, and what I am doing, whether it is on here, on Twitter, or on Numberbet.com.

Odds Boost You should Consider
KC Chiefs +101 Points (DK Sportsbook)
This is a max bet of $50 and is free money.

Any Team 55/1 to win the Super Bowl (DK Sportsbook)
This is a max bet of $1, but it is a fantastic boost.

Any team to win the Super Bowl (FD Sportsbook)
Get $5 for every win your team has during the season.
Minimum bet of $50.
For example if you bet $50 on the Steelers at 25/1 and they go 10-6, you get your $50 back in site credit.

Same Game Parlay (FD Sportsbook)
They offer these all the time and you get a refund if you lose. This week they have if you bet a $20 same game parlay, you get $10 in site credit back.

Bet $10 on the Chiefs/Texans game and get $10 for every Mahomes TD, no matter how it is scored. (Fox Bet)
This is a max bet of $10, but go do it and collect your free money.

Mahomes and Watson to Each throw 2 or more TD’s. (Fox Bet)
This pays +300 and has a max bet of $25. Both QB’s are expected to throw two touchdowns, so this is an advantageous odds boost.

Computer Model

2015-2019
Overall 650-561 53.67%
Premium 154-131 54.04%
Platinum 29-25 53.70%

Overall
2015 132-132 50%
2016 127-94 57.47%
2017 108-99 52.17%
2018 141-118 54.44%
2019 142-118 54.62%

Premium
2015 43-37 53.75%
2016 30-24 55.56%
2017 18-21 46.15%
2018 32-21 60.38%
2019 31-28 52.54%

Platinum
2015 2-1 66.67%
2016 4-4 50%
2017 6-4 60%
2018 6-11 35.29%
2019 11-5 68.75%

Week 1 Plays

Platinum
NE -6.5

Premium Plays
Bal -8
Chi +3
Jax+7.5

Regular Plays
Hou +9
NYJ +6.5
Car +3
Sea -2
Phi -6
Min -2.5
LAC -3
SF -7
NO -3.5
DAL -3
PIT -6
TEN +1