The public against the professionals. This is the story many weeks when it comes to betting on the NFL. There are so many times where the public sees a situation that seems too obvious. We have one of those tonight. Kansas City opened as a 4.5-point favorite at Denver. The line is now down to just KC -3.
This game features reverse line movement. A reverse line move occurs when a larger percent of the betting tickets are on a team, but the line moves the opposite direction. Despite around 80% of wagers being on the Chiefs, the line has dropped. Situations like this occur when professionals are pouring large amounts of wager on a team, but the public is betting small amounts at a higher clip. The result, the line has come down.
From the public’s perspective, this seems like an easy game to wager on. The Chiefs are a high-powered offense that scores at will. Denver was 0-4 two weeks ago. People who spend little time analyzing a game, but like making wagers, usually think like this.
We have aimed to make our computer model sharper and to align with professionals as much is it can. Tonight at least, it has. The computer likes the Broncos as a regular play at +3. I personally am staying away from this game completely. It is too easy and obvious to take the Chiefs, but their defense is terrible. Denver should be able to run the ball at will and control the clock. If you are betting the Chiefs tonight, tread lightly.
For College football this week, we like four games. One of which is a Friday night affair!
Pitt -3.5
The Pitt defense is very good and Syracuse has had problems scoring against above average teams. It is almost comical to stay, but Pitt could go 10-2 and win their half of the ACC. They need this game to do so.
Wyoming -19.5
I said it a few weeks ago and I will say it again, Wyoming is very good at home. Wyoming’s two losses are at Tulsa and at San Diego State, they are 3-0 at home and get to play an awful New Mexico Team. New Mexico is 4-17-1 against the spread in their last 22 games.
Appalachian State -15
App State is 5-0 and has 34+ points in every game but one. UL Monroe has given up 45, 72, and 52 when they have played good teams. (If you consider Florida State good is another argument, but they are a power five school)
Texas -21
Texas is coming off a loss and has a great bounce back spot against Kansas. Kansas has improved, but the last three weeks regressed to old Kansas.
4 Team 7 point Teaser +200
Pitt +3.5
Wyoming -12.5
App St -8
Texas -14
We will be back with more tomorrow! Good luck everyone!
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