Week five is here and the AFC remains the strangest looking conference after four weeks in recent memory. Only three teams have a winning record. THREE. I am sure you are well aware of two of them, New England and Kansas City. Buffalo being 3-1 feels strange, but that schedule is soft. That is the list. I am sure we could make something of the fact that there are some abysmal teams that might be or should consider tanking. Even with these terrible teams near the bottom of the standings there seems to be a cannibalization happening in the rest of the league. No one else is standing out, because no one else is that much better or consistent than anyone else. How can we use this to our advantage as sports bettors? Going into last week teams giving a touchdown or more had not lost a game all season. Than week four happened and several of them not only did not cover, they lost outright. The data at this point would also suggest home field means nothing. Of course, the underdogs covering and road teams winning means that regression will occur in that area as well.
Most people when they bet games only look at the prior week, or at least the recall the most recent event that occurred. Take for example the Cleveland Browns. Browns had too much hype to start the year, disappointed then seemingly out of nowhere ran through the Ravens last Sunday. The general public consensus was that Baltimore was a significantly better football team than the Browns. In reality, both teams have flaws and are inconsistent. Without consistency, a wider range of outcomes is always in play. Our computer model aims to narrow down those outcomes and ignore recency bias. The computer does not know the Browns were hyped up as Super Bowl contenders. All the computer cares about is what each team’s data says. Having said that, you will notice the trend that the computer always likes getting larger point quantities. That trend will continue this week as well, but thankfully, Miami is not on the slate.
Platinum Plays
NO -3.5
NYJ +13.5
Wash +15.5
Premium Plays
Indy +11
Clev +3.5
Regular Plays
LAR +1
CIN -3
Ten -3
Chi -5.5
NYG +5.5
Pit +3
Jax +3.5
ATL +5
Den +6.5
GB +6.5
I hope that you continue to follow us on Twitter as we post other wagers throughout the week. We were very fortunate to start the MLB playoffs off with a 2-0 start and will look to continue that today by suggesting the OVER 9.5 in the Atlanta/STL game at +102.
For college football, we have a few wagers for the weekend. This weekend sees many ranked teams laying big points before playing a pivotal conference match up the following week. In these situations, it is always better to tread lightly and be aware of what is on the horizon.
Tulsa +13
SMU just was ranked for the first time since getting the death penalty before some of you reading this were even born. Tulsa is a good team that has been competitive in all four of their games. The 2-2 record is slightly deceiving since their two losses are to Oklahoma State and Michigan State. Tulsa also beat a good Wyoming team two weeks ago.
Purdue +28
I know the Pitt graduate and fan is betting against Penn State, but hear me out. Purdue can score dropping 31,13,42,31 in the first four weeks of the year. PSU has scored in bunches as well, but have a massive road game at Iowa next week. With hopes of making a run at the CFB playoffs, PSU may be looking ahead and struggle to cover in this one. I also noticed the line here in Pennsylvania is 28, but 27.5 in other places. Looks like PA bettors have to pay a home team tax to take PSU.
Air Force -3.5
Air Force has been a sharp bettors darling early in the season and get a chance to continue against one of their service academy rivals on the road. Air Force has scored 30+ in every game except their close loss at Boise State. Navy does not have enough offense to keep up in this one.
Georgia -24.5
I can recall when Georgia and Tennessee was a big game, but the Volunteers are terrible now. Georgia has had two weeks to prepare following their win over Notre Dame. I like betting against teams that cannot score and Tennessee fits the bill perfectly. Georgia will grind down Tennessee and win easily.
Platinum 7-2 (77.77%)
Premium 11-8 (57.89%)
Overall 41-22 (65.07%)
College Teasers and Parlays 4-4 (50%) +40
College Picks 11-12 (47.82%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 4-4 (50%) +280
NFL Picks 10-6 (62.5%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 8-8 (50%) +320
Overall Picks 21-18 (53.84%)
Baseball Record 91-60 +2484
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995
Win The Weekends 