Week two in the NFL is always strange. Normally, there is an overreaction and lines are inflated. The lines were, but we have some historically bad teams and some injuries that have altered the league in many ways. This affected not only betting but fantasy as well. Most of the DFS professionals had bad weeks. You can check their twitter timeline and see how things went. My week was average. I broke even on Fan Duel and made money on Draft Kings. This was really only because I cashed in the Wild Cat.
Despite a large percent of my lineup busting or nor playing to expectation, I still got there. The decision to pay up and play the Patriots defense ended up being the difference. Cooper Kupp’s late touchdown being overturned also cost me some money, but no complaints here. Any week not losing is a good week. The most important thing though is what did we learn?
Things we learned after Two weeks
1. Baltimore will not hand off to Mark Ingram when they have a lead. They continued to run Lamar and their offense. Also, Hollywood is legit and so is his market share. If you don’t run a Lamar/Hollywood stack this week against Kansas City, you should not be playing DFS.
2. The Steeler’s offense will not suffer with out Ben. Mason Rudolph was fine in the second half. The interception was Donte Concrete’s fault. Pittsburgh is a seven point dog in San Francisco this week. That feels juicy to me. Try and trade for JuJu right now if you can for as cheap as possible in season long.
3. Home Field advantage means nothing. Seriously, playing at home has slowly meant less and less. Even Vegas has stopped making the home team and automatic three point favorite.
4. Get used to these massive spreads. Teams are tanking much sooner and realizing they can not compete at the highest level. Our computer model sees anything near 14 points and will always take them. Miami and the Jets are going to test this model going forward. Both teams are huge dogs this week, again.
5. If you believe in a team, bet them, but situations do matter. The Bears had ten days off and the Broncos lost a late road Monday Night Game after week one. In the past this was a schedule loss for the Broncos. Short rest, quick travel and injuries meant that teams could not compete at a high level. This happens every Thursday night, but that is an even playing field. There is no reason, other than talent, that the Bears should have not won easily. The other three teams that played on Monday night all lost and did not cover. (Houston, New Orleans, Oakland) The Jets have a short week and play at New England with a third string quarterback. 22 points won’t be enough.
6. Buffalo will make the playoffs and Josh Allen needs to be our cash game QB as long as he is cheap. LOOK AT THEIR SCHEDULE. They can get to nine wins.
7. Paying up at defense in DFS was not a winning strategy. There is a ton of variance at defense and defensive TD’s are fluky. It won’t be long before the most expensive defense will be whomever plays the Dolphins. The Patriots defense is still too cheap this week against the Jets.
That’s all for now! Hopefully, we can bounce back betting wise after that bizarre weeks two. Good luck to everyone!
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