Week 1 #NFL Computer Model Picks

For the last four years, we have been running a computer model picking games against the spread. Every year the computer does pretty well. The key number is getting over 54% correct. That is the number needed to show a profit betting against the spread over the course of time. You will notice that we have divided our picks by how much the computer likes the games. The overall record is the spread pick of every single NFL game during that season. The next category is premium, which the computer likes more. Lastly, the platinum section is when the computer really likes a game. Some weeks the computer will have several platinum or premium selections and other weeks it will have almost zero. It is a computer and the data it shoots out can vary week to week. However, the computer is consistent overall, hovering right near that 54% line in selecting every game against the spread. Below you will see how the computer did every year and the collective total.

2015
Overall 132-132 50%
Platinum 2-1 66.67%
Premium 43-37 53.75%

2016
Overall 127-94 57.47%
Platinum 4-4 50%
Premium 30-24 55.56%

2017
Overall 108-99 52.17%
Platinum 6-4 60%
Premium 18-21 46.15%

2018
Overall 142-115 55.25%
Platinum 4-10 28.57%
Premium 33-19 63.46%
Playoff Record 6-3-1 66.66%

Four Year Total
Overall 509-440 53.63%
Platinum 16-19 45.71%
Premium 124-101 55.11%

While many sites and picking services may tell you what kind of streak they are on, we are fully transparent. If we make a selection and it loses, we add it to our record. We don’t tout hot streaks, we present all our data and let you make an informed decision as to what you want to bet. You might be in a picking contest, where you have to pick every game straight up or against the spread. The goal here is to give you some ideas as to what the computer likes and what we personally like too.

Premium Plays
TENN +5
WASH +10
KC -3.5
INDY +6.5
NYG +7
PITT +5.5
DEN PK

Regular Plays
CHI -3
BAL -6.5
MINN -4
BUFF +3
CAR +2.5
CIN +9.5
ARZ +3
TB PK
HOU +7

As you can tell, we did pretty well making picks last year. Much like baseball, the parlays and teasers did not go well. Fortunately, we already started hitting two teasers in college last weekend. You will see the record broken down by section at the bottom of this blog. If you don’t break down in detail where you are winning and losing how can you spot the holes in your betting strategy? As you can see we went 2-3 picking single games last week in college and 2-0 on teasers. The funny thing is if the teasers were parlays they would have been good as well. Oddly, I picked Michigan last Thursday, but then did not place them in any teasers on Saturday. Instead, I went with Illinois, whom I did not bet on Thursday.

2018
My Picks 36-28-3 (56.25%)
My Crazy Teasers and Parlays 17-28-1 -680

Lastly, I will probably not bet much baseball the rest of the way. I will happily take my profit and move on to football season. I do not have enough time to research and make baseball selections like I did now that football season is here. I have already made two NFL bets for this weekend. If you are not on the Fan Duel Sportsbook, I don’t know what you are waiting for. The daily odds boost are too good of a value to pass up. I mentioned it here before about the Sixers. I have the Packers +7.5 at +100. This has been boosted from -230. I also have Seattle to win the game against the Bengals at +100 too. This is boosted from -430. Both of these wagers are fantastic. If you aren’t checking the daily odds boost every day, you really should be.

Platinum 0-0 (%)
Premium 0-0 (%)
Overall 0-0 (%)

College Teasers and Parlays 2-0 (100%)
College Picks 2-3 (40%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-0 (0%)
NFL Picks 0-0 (0%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 2-0 (100%)
Overall Picks (2-3 40%)

Baseball Record 89-58 +2459
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995