Describing the NBA playoffs this year has been difficult. I keep finding myself saying; oh it was a weird game. I think I’ve said that phrase too many times. We had the Durant got hurt game. The you forgot about us original Warrior’s game. The no one can make a shot and Giannis is screwed game. The Kwhai four rim touch series winner. Everything Portland did before being swept. Nothing has been straightforward and while a lot of it makes sense, many of the results have been random.
All of that leads us to where we are in game three now. Bill Simmons on his podcast said anything could happen the next five games. He is completely correct. I bet against the Warriors when they played the Rockets. I bet against them in this series too. My prevailing opinion was that Kerr was out of moves and players he could conceivably trust and use in big moments. My assessment was 100% correct, but does it matter? Houston was unable to make enough shots to take down the Warriors. Can Toronto?
Looney is out. KD is out. Klay is not healthy. Quinn Cook is going to have to play 20 minutes. Andrew Bogut or someone else is going to have to play minutes too. Toronto played a box and one on the Warriors, the freaking Warriors of all teams and it worked. Yet, they could not make enough shots down the stretch themselves. The Warriors are limping to the finish line. To make things even more interesting, game four is Friday, leaving no rest for the Warriors. Simply, game three is a must win for Toronto. Boogie is only going to get more comfortable. Klay is going to heal up some and oh yeah Kevin Durant may be back for game four. If the Raptors have, any shot of winning a title winning in Golden State tonight is a big step.
The line for this game has moved all around. It has been as high as Golden State -6 and as low as Golden State -4.5. At first, it appeared the public was on Toronto and the professionals were on the Warriors, but now that has flipped. The money is closer to even as are the tickets. (Slight Toronto edge in both, but not dramatic)
I am biased I suppose. I have been calling for the end of the Warriors since the playoffs started. I called this series the 2004 Lakers/Pistons all over again. When things end for dynasties, they tend to end abruptly and unexpectedly. It felt like after game one we were headed down that path. Toronto should have taken control of game two but let it slip. That has been the Warriors biggest edge the last few years. When they have been vulnerable, no one has really taken advantage.
All the historical data says that Golden State should be a great bet tonight. Coming home tied in the series against a road team that struggles to score, especially on the road. Conversely, the Warriors always play better at home. (This year they had some real weird home losses though) I just do not think the Warriors are healthy enough. If Klay cannot give it a go and be close to normal the Warriors will not have enough offense. We will get a report in the next few hours revealing how healthy Klay is or is not. I am waiting, but leaning Toronto +5. I hope that we get the Klay news before online gambling comes to iPhone’s!
Pending Wagers
Toronto +240 to win series
NBA Record 55-49 (52.88%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 11-23 +2217
NBA Playoff Record 8-8 (50%)
NBA Playoff Parlay and Teaser Record 4-11 +1717
Basketball Total Record 95-82 (53.67%)
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 14-43 +1627
Baseball Record 2-3 -137
Baseball Parlays 4-8 +33
GOLF 0-2 -200
Win The Weekends 