If you read the last post, then you know I needed Virginia to just win on Saturday to lock up a nice profit in my bracket pools. I ended up trying to middle the game and bet Auburn +5.5 for the amount I was about to win if Virginia won.
I needed Virginia to win by 1-5 to hit all the way around and wouldn’t you know I got there. Is Virginia a team of destiny? It certainly seems that way. Now that Michigan State has been eliminated I needed to reassess my potential bracket pool winnings. I know for sure I am going to win $250, even if Virginia loses tonight. However, how much more do I stand to win should they win the title? Once I factor in my entry fees and any equity swaps I have out there bracket wise, a Virginia win would net me an additional $400.
Sadly, the line for tonight is too tiny to create a middling window of any kind. If the line got to Virginia -2.5 or even 2 it would give me a small window to try and make this work. However, I did find an option. Looking at the props offered for tonight’s game I noticed some alternate lines. Most books offer these with different odds since the point spread had been altered. In those props I noticed Texas Tech +7.5 is -280. Hmmmmm. Obviously, laying $280 to win $100 is not exactly profitable in the long term. This is a unique situation. Just as I could Saturday, if I bet the $400 additionally that I will win with a UVA win on TT +7.5, I could win about $150 if TT is good with the points. This wager would also create a nice seven-point window to middle and win both. Based upon how both of these teams play and the insanely low total of 118, this is going to be a close game. I think I have to make this wager and try to middle once again. I wish the odds were better, but the window and points allow me to hedge with a massive chance to win both. (Also, if you were paying attention a few months ago I gave out UVA at 12/1 to win the title. Hopefully, you have that ticket in hand)
The Masters is this week and I will be making several lineups on Draft Kings and Fan Duel. While those will lock on Thursday morning, I will be making one wager on a golfer to win. I really like Paul Casey at 30/1. Casey has played the Masters 12 times at this point making the cut nine times. Looking into the numbers even deeper, Casey has five top ten finishes and another three in the top 20.
Paul Casey Masters Finishes Last Four Years
2018 Tied 15th
2017 6th
2016 Tied 4th
2015 Tied 6th
All of this suggests he has been close and can win this tournament. At 30/1 he is too good of a value to pass up. I will be back later this week with my Masters lineups. Good luck everyone!
NBA Record 47-41 (53.40%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 8-14 +383
College Basketball Record 40-32 (55.55%)
NCAA Tourney Record 19-15 (55.88%)
College Parlay and Teaser Record 2-17 -1250
Basketball Total Record 87-73 (54.37%)
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 10-31 -867
Win The Weekends 