So you didn’t watch that much college basketball? You know next to nothing about any of the teams in the bracket? You want the best chance to win your office pool? I am here to help, sort of. I am not going to tell you who to pick. I am going to tell you who not to pick.
Many people think the best way to give yourself a chance to win your pool is to pick the best team to win the title. That’s not entirely accurate. While picking the best team may actually give you the best chance to pick the winner, that does not guarantee winning your pool, or making any money. It is pretty straight forward to say that Duke is the prohibitive favorite to win the NCAA tourney. They have the best player. They might have the first THREE picks in the NBA draft. They have a hall of fame coach. They have a pretty favorable draw. The have the best odds in Vegas to actually win the title. They have all year. This week when you are listening to people give their picks, most people are going to pick Duke. That is precisely why you should not pick them.
I suppose everything depends upon what your goal is. Do you want to seem smart and say “I picked the champion,” or do you want to win your pool? I want to win my pool and any money I can. The best way to accomplish this goal is to make a contrarian champion selection.
Why? If you are in a pool with 100 people and 30 people pick Duke to win the title in their bracket, that does not guarantee you make money and finish at the top. Picking Duke in this scenario means you just finish in the top 30 with everyone else who picked Duke. Since most pools pay the top 5-10%, even picking the champion would be almost meaningless. This is the essence of game theory. If you want to give yourself the best chance to win a pool, pick anyone but Duke.
Using the same scenario as above, if Duke happens to lose relatively early, 30% of the field has already been eliminated. In most cases you have to pick the champion to actually win an NCAA bracket pool. Conversely, if the team you picked to win the title was only selected by you and two other people, you should almost automatically finish in the money should they win.
Of course all of this and how you should approach your bracket pool depends upon the size of the pool. If it is small and contains only a handful of entrants, I would go ahead and pick Duke. In that case I would be very chalky and allow everyone else to make mistakes. The larger the pool, the more contrarian you should become with your selections.
The toughest balance is being contrarian without being stupid. I am not advocating picking a bunch of 7 seeds or higher to win the title. I am simply saying pick someone not named Duke to win the title. However, if you really want to pick Duke, then be contrarian with the rest of your final four. Maybe you decide to pick Duke and a bunch of three seeds or higher. Obviously, there are a lot of combinations and things you can do. It is your bracket to have fun with. I know what I am planning to do though, pick anyone but Duke to win it all.
Good luck everyone!
(Of course if you are in a pool with me, don’t listen to this advice. Just pick Duke, it’s going to be fine. No one else will take them. Maybe, I am saying this so you don’t pick Duke and I can pick them as a low selected champion?)
NBA Record 47-41 (53.40%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 8-19 +383
College Basketball Record 24-19 (55.81%)
College Parlay and Teaser Record 1-12 -850
Basketball Total Record 71-60 (54.19%)
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 9-26 -467
Win The Weekends 