2018-2019 #Lakers are Dead

The 2018-2019 Lakers are dead. And everyone over 30 killed them. I wrote yesterday that if you can still find the “will the Lakers make the playoffs” betting odds, you should bet NO. After back-to-back losses to New Orleans and Memphis, the Lakers season is officially over. Yes, the Lakers are three games back of a playoff spot in the Western conference, but it’s not happening. The schedule is insane. Below is their schedule and a guess of what games they will be favored in.

NO – FAV
MIL
PHO – FAV
LAC – FAV
DEN
BOS
CHI – FAV
TOR
DET
NY – FAV
MIL
BKN
SAC
WASH – FAV
UTAH
CHA – FAV
NO – FAV
OKC
GS
LAC – FAV
UTAH
PORT

Even if they win every game they should be favored in, they would close 9-13. Go ahead and give them three more wins where they are a dog and they close 12-10. The Sacramento Kings who are two games ahead of the Lakers should be favored in at least 9 games down the stretch. If they just win the games they should be favored in the Kings would close 9-13 and remain ahead of the Lakers. Reminder, neither of these teams are in playoff position.

The Spurs are currently in the final playoff spot in the West and have a three game lead on the Lakers. The Spurs are struggling, but part of it was their long rodeo road trip. Derrick White just came back and the Spurs have a pretty nice closing schedule closing with Washington, Cleveland and Dallas. All three of those teams will be tanking like crazy the last week.

I see almost no path for the Lakers to make the playoffs. It is extremely dangerous to count out Lebron James, but if you watched any of the spotlights of him on defense from the last week, it feels much safer. James seems to be coasting on defense and barely making an effort at times. Of course, he gets his numbers and if you didn’t watch the games, it appears he is fine. He isn’t. Lebron’s defense is bad and the team around him can’t make up for his lapses. Bill Simmons and Ryen Russilo touched on this on Simmons podcast today. They even broke down why the Cavs team that beat the Warriors worked and how this Lakers team is not constructed in any way like that championship team.

While, the top four in the East is very good this year that hasn’t always been the case. Lebron almost effortlessly has been able to loaf to a top four seed in the East the last eight years. (He took time off in games last year. He took a Miami Vacation a few years ago in season) As I wrote earlier this year, the NBA is vastly different. Every team has a star and can make things very difficult. There are only a handful of bad teams, or teams that are tanking. Even those teams are playing extremely hard. The Knicks just won two games in a row thanks to Mitchell Robinson. Do the Knicks want to win? Of course not, but the players don’t know that, they just play hard. People who don’t watch the NBA would always say that players don’t try that hard or play defense. That could not be further from the truth now. The Knicks who are hoping to lose just beat Orlando and San Antonio. Lebron took a few days off playing defense and the internet is skewering him.

Even when the Lakers get back Lonzo Ball, this team does not have enough to compete every day in the deep western conference. If you want to know how desperate the Lakers are, they traded for Reggie Bullock and are playing him major minutes. Surrounding Lebron with shooters on a team that lacks them makes sense, but that was the best they could do at the trade deadline. The off season signings of KCP, Lance and Beasley all did not work out. KCP is a streaky shooter has been more cold than hot. Lance strummed his guitar for like three days and Beasley is now playing in China. Remember when everyone complained that the Suns bought out Tyson Chandler so the Lakers could sign him? He’s done too. Even Rondo, who had some nice stretches, has been wildly inconsistent. Almost like Rondo has been ever since he left Boston. Never forget the entire Dallas Mavericks team and organization told him to go away a few years ago. Don’t let that stretch the Anthony Davis and the Pelicans from last year fool you.

The Lakers best five-man lineup in terms of offensive and defensive rating is actually Lebron, McGee, Ingram, Ball and Kuzma. The problem? They have only played 18 games together. Notice how none of their older players (Except McGee) are in that lineup. The missing player who when given some minutes actually excelled is Josh Hart. Hart had a short stretch where he was knocking down shots and became the shooter that James needs around him. Yes, Hart is shooting only 33% from three this season, but his minutes have trended down just as the Lakers have faltered. In December and January, the Lakers went 19-11. Hart shot 38% from three in that stretch and Lebron was injured for some of it. Hart’s minutes became inconsistent in February and he is shooting 22.7% from three this month. Coincidentally, Rondo came back from injury in this time frame and Bullock joined the roster.

How do the Lakers fix this? They can’t this season. The best chance they have is to start their best five-man lineup. Perhaps until Ball comes back they should start Hart over Bullock. Even so the bench and those older guys are going to get crushed by other teams second units. Over the next two weeks the Lakers plays Milwaukee, Denver, Boston and Toronto. All of those teams second units will not only maintain leads against the Lakers, but grow them. Is it fair to compare their bench to those four teams, no. But that is where this Lakers season has landed. Not only must they play well the next two weeks, but they need to steal at least one of those games to realistically have any shot at the playoffs. CBS Sports gives the Lakers a 16% chance of making the playoffs. ESPN says they have a 17% chance. I say it’s actually 0%.