#NBA and #CBB Futures Betting: #Nuggets #Virginia

Betting futures in sports is a very strange thing. What is your ultimate goal? To pick the winner? Well, sort of. While picking the winner does matter, finding value and hedge opportunities are more important and at times more lucrative.

Around this time last year, I looked at the Philadelphia Sixers schedule and thought they would make their way to the 3 seed. Kyrie had just been ruled out for the season and playoffs. Cleveland was collapsing and it certainly seemed like the top four seeds would be Toronto, Boston, Philly, Cleveland in some order. I didn’t trust Toronto and felt Cleveland was beatable. Obviously, the Celtics were done without Kyrie so why not bet Philly? At the time the Sixers were slated to be the five seed and not have any home court advantage. I checked my online website of the price for the Sixers to win the East and saw, +2800. I looked at the Sixers remaining schedule and decided they could get to the three seed and would have an injured Celtics team and a Raptors team that always loses in April.

I bet the Sixers at +2800 to win the East. The Sixers won three straight.

I bet the Sixers again, but at +2500 to win the East. The Sixers went on a run and earned the three seed.

Round one, Sixers beat the heat. The Celtics were next. They were young and didn’t have Kyrie. No need to hedge even though the Celtics were +400 to win the series. Oops. The Celtics won and Ben Simmons refused to shoot a jumper.

I should have hedged, but waited. I figured in the East Finals I could bet enough to make sure I showed a profit. Using some easy math, if I bet $100 twice on the Sixers to win the East, I was in for $200 aiming to win $5300. I figured that the Raptors or Cavs would be a slight favorite against Philly. Even if the Raps/Cavs were -150, I could bet $2500 on them and guarantee a win of at roughly $2000 no matter the result.

My Plan
Sixers win: Make $5300 on original wagers, lose $2500 on Raps/Cavs bet.
Result: Win $2800
Raps/Cavs win: Make $2000 on Raps/Cavs series win bet, Lose $200 on original wagers.
Result: Win $1800

By taking advantage of what I thought was tremendous value, I could set myself up for a win no matter what. Of course, the Celtics ruined that plan and I waited to hedge. Resulting in a loss of $200. Lesson learned.

So how can we take advantage of futures right now? In terms of the NBA there is only one team I am focused on. In the west I am looking at Denver at +2800 to win the NBA title. Yes, Golden State is probably going to win the championship. But, what if they don’t? If KD or Curry get hurt between now and then anything can happen. I don’t like the Nuggets for that reason though. The Nuggets set me up for an opportunity to make money. A $100 wager on Denver at +2800 to win the NBA title would pay $2800. Denver is currently the two seed in the west and should avoid Golden State until the western conference finals. At that point I could hedge and make a profit.

My Plan
Denver plays five games against tanking teams out of their final 22 games. They should hold on to the two seed and have home court against everyone, but the Warriors. Denver could match up with the Spurs, Clippers, Lakers, or Kings in round one. Denver would be a big favorite of -200 or more against all of them. I would not hedge or do anything in round one. In the western conference semi-finals, the Nuggets would play the Thunder. They have played twice this year and Denver won both. They play two more times in the final 22 games of the season. Depending upon how it plays out, I could bet the Thunder for a $100 to win the series at maybe +125. If the Thunder won, I would be up $25 and basically did all of this for nothing. At this moment I would not do that. I could even bet the deciding game, if I didn’t hedge the series price to make sure I broke even.

Once the Nuggets make the western finals is when I would hedge. If the Warriors are -250 I could bet $2000 and in $800 if the Warriors win. Minus my original $100 wager I would net $700. Of course these numbers and my plan could change. At this moment though I am locking in Denver at +2800 to win the NBA title.

In college basketball we have a weird situation. Duke is the prohibitive favorite. Betting Duke provides zero value. You could just bet Duke on the money line a few time and make up the same amount of money as their current price of +200. There are two teams I do have my eye on. My goal is to pick teams that avoid Duke as long as possible. How can I do that?

Duke is going to be the no.1 Overall seed unless Zion is hurt long term. They should be placed in the Eastern Region (DC). Gonzaga should be the no.1 seed in the West (Anaheim) and should in theory play Duke in the final four. I want to avoid that situation completely. I want to focus on the teams who should play Duke in the finals should they make it. Two teams jump out to me and both should not be placed in Duke’s region at all. The reason, they are in the same conference. The bracket committee tries to avoid teams from the same conference meeting up, unless they have no choice. In this case, two highly seeded teams should avoid Duke and provide value.

Virginia is slotted to be the no.1 seed in the south (Louisville). Yes, I know what happened last year. This team is better, shoots more threes and has a lottery pick. Virginia should be a double-digit favorite in their first two games at least. In the sweet 16 they will be favored too. After two games, I can look at betting on the money line against them to hedge. Regardless, I won’t have to worry about Duke until the finals.

North Carolina is slotted to be the no.2 seed in a region. I am hoping in the Midwest (Kansas City). Why do I think that can happen? The committee again will not put an ACC team in UNC with either Duke or Virginia. Of course, UNC could get shipped out west with Gonzaga. Either way, they will avoid Duke until the final four.

Both of these teams could actually win the title and could possibly be favored in every game, except for against Duke. I feel both of these teams give me the best opportunity to hedge in certain spots and make a profit. I am going to lock in Virginia at +1000 and North Carolina at +1600. In my dream scenario, they meet in the final four or for the title.

NBA Record  45-35 (56.25%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 7-16 +583
College Basketball Record 5-5 50%
College Parlay and Teaser Record 1-2 +50
Basketball Total Record 50-40 55.55%
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 8-18 +633