Betting on the 2020 Election: Democratic Bracket

What started out as a little twitter conversation last week has prompted me to take action. There are so many people throwing their hat in the ring attempting to run for President in 2020. 2019 is not even a month old and we have at least a dozen people exploring a run, already running or perhaps considering a run. Today I present to you the sweet 16. These are the 16 people most likely to legitimately have chance at winning the Democratic Primary as of today.  *(These are not my political views nor who I want to win. These are all just based upon the gambling odds.)

How did I select the names for the bracket?
Some of these names are obvious and others I picked based upon current betting odds for actually winning the Presidency.

How were the candidates seeded?
The four people with the best betting odds were given one seeds. These are there current odds of winning the Presidency. (Not the Democratic Nomination, but the actual Presidency)
Harris +600
Beto +800
Biden +1200
Warren +2000
In terms of actually betting on this, Biden provides tremendous value to me. I wish I could bet against Beto. There is no reason he should be +800 at this moment. He couldn’t even beat the an unlikable Senator in his own state in an election that overwhelmingly favored his party. Beto is the trendy sleeper everyone loves to make a run in March and they may win a game or two, but never make it all the way. He is this year’s Tennessee.

How were the regions grouped?
The bottom left region is what I am calling the old guard. This region includes Warren, Kerry, Clinton and Sanders. These are the elder members of the Democratic party. One of them will surely be in the mix in 2020. The other regions were based upon gambling odds.

Why is Joe Biden not in the old guard?
He has no current political position, sat out 2016 and is closely tied to Obama.  Joe Biden is Michigan State. Some very high and low moments, but always lurking to make a run.

Why did Corey Booker get a 2 seed?!
Despite not being that highly regarded in betting markets he is a viable candidate. He was supposed to be Obama before Obama. He is the Kansas of this Bracket. Always highly rated, but not considered in the class of teams that get NBA players.

Who was over or under seeded?
Kristen Gillibrand was over seeded as a 2. Gillibrand (Kentucky, young and was a name people really liked a few months ago but has cooled slightly) is roughly +4000 to win in 2020. Conversely, Amy Klobuchar was under seeded. Klobuchar (Nevada from the last few years) is +3300 to win in 2020. Don’t like the seeded take it up with the committee.

What does my bracket look like?

I ate the chalk. Harris has the best betting odds and Biden is third. Of course I am fading Beto. I think there is ZERO chance he actually wins the nomination. Harris is Gonzaga. Based on the west coast, has had some NBA players and is ready for their moment in a wide open field. Gonzaga will have their chance in March and Harris will over the next two years. What does your bracket look like? Who do you got? Who should be seeded differently?