#NFL Divisional Round Picks

Getting the best of a number is critically important when betting sports. At this current time, it is not really feasible. If we are to make wagers legally, we have to give what the casino offers when we drive there. In time, there will be an App that allows us to monitor and make wagers at a more advantageous time for the teams we like. A perfect example was Seattle last week. I decided to make my wager Friday evening and had Seattle at +2.5. The next day they were +2. Obviously, as you know Seattle would come back and somehow miraculously cover. I was fortunate to have the best of the number as +2.5 was the highest Seattle would be all week.

This week’s games are very strange. After four dogs were good last week with three winning outright can we see the dogs continue their run? I say no. Regression to the mean is due to happen. The computer doesn’t think like that. The computer has a platinum play on Chargers +4. Everything else from the computer is just a regular play. Those include the Colts +5.5, Rams -7 and the Eagles +8.

I personally am scared of the Eagle game. I lost a lot betting on them getting eight in this exact same spot not too long ago. It’s the same, only it is not. From everything I have read Foles does much better against man-to-man defense, which the Saints primarily play. The Eagles secondary has been shredded by mostly everyone except for the last two games against the Bears and Redskins. Neither team have any WR worth even mentioning. If you remove the last two weeks the Eagles defense had given up 30, 23, 29, 13, 22, 48 points. The 13 was against the Redskins again and the 22 was against the Giants. If you think the Eagles are going to score the defense should be capable of holding the Saints to around 24-28 points. I think the Eagles do just that and score on their own, staying close but still losing. 28-21. I will be on the Eagles +8.

In the other games I really like the Rams -7 and the Colts +5.5 I think the Chiefs win, but Colts score as well. I will also be playing the over of 57. Dak and Dallas haven been bad on the road this year. Conversely, the Rams have been much better at home. I think the Rams learned from their conservative mistakes last year in the playoffs and come out firing. If Dak doesn’t have a fantastic game the Rams roll easily. The Cowboys can not play from behind in this game.

Lastly, I am going to take the Chargers. It feels so strange to say that they are better than the Pats, but they are. Despite that betting on Phillip Rivers against the Pats at home makes me queasy. I can’t believe I am saying this, but I think the Chargers actually win the game.

I will be posting teasers and other wagers in the near future, but for now this is what I am betting

My Wagers
PHIL +8
INDY +5.5
LAR -7
LAC +4
OVER 57 KC/INDY

I also added a picture of the final standings of the Handicapping contest I was in. At the top you see the record of the group that won the Hilton Super Contest. I finished 10.5 games behind them. No complaints here as I finished tied for fourth. img_1592

 

 

 

Computer
Platinum 4-9-1 (40%)
Premium 33-19-3 (63.46%)
Overall 139-111-8 (55.60%)
Playoff Record 3-0-1 (100%)

My Picks 31-22-3 (62.26%)
The Undertaker 3-3 (50%)
My Crazy Teasers and Parlays 14-18-1 -140

NBA Record  31-26 (54.38%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 3-9 -235

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