Somehow week 10 is upon us. Feels like not that long ago the season was about to start, but here we are and look at the spreads this week. After all the favorites covered last week, Vegas is raising the numbers across the board. There has always been the Patriots tax meaning the line was one or two points higher than it should be since the public always plays them. Now that tax has been extrapolated to several teams. The Rams, Chiefs and whomever is playing the worst teams are getting taxed as well. Some of these spreads just feel a little too high. Honestly, how many points would it take for you to bet on the Cardinals against the Chiefs? Before the season started and even a few weeks into the season I would have automatically taken anyone getting 16.5, or any home dog of more than 3. Yet, at this point these numbers seem very fair. How did we get here?
There are some god awful teams that barely can compete. These teams barely resemble an NFL team and have massive trouble scoring. Conversely, the good teams can drop 30+ on any given day. Prior to this year it felt like any team getting over a touchdown had a chance for a cheap back door cover TD while the other team played soft defense. That is not the case for Oakland, Buffalo, the Jets, Dallas and a number of other teams. These teams have so few weapons that even with a soft defense they cannot score. How many points do you think the Cardinals will really score this week if things go extremely well? 17? Cardinals point totals this year: 6, 0, 14, 17, 28, 17, 10, 18. The two highest scores of 28 and 18 were both against San Francisco. Buffalo has similar numbers. How do we take advantage of this situation? By using teasers.
When I was in college I had a friend who bet one three team ten-point teaser every week. He picked the Patriots and two other big favorites. He won, a lot. As the leagues changed that became less optimal every year. Now, that we have transitioned back to a system of massive spreads it makes tons of sense to try and adapt and play some of these teasers.
For example, my first wager of the weekend is a crazy teaser.
Three team 10 point Teaser -120 (2 Units)
KC -6.5
LAR PK
LAC PK
The Rams and Chargers just need to win against teams they should easily beat. The Chiefs just need to cover seven against a team that can’t score more than 17. The Chiefs average over 30 points a game.
Four Team 13 Point Teaser -130 (2 Units)
KC -4.5
LAC +2.5
LAR +3
PITT +9.5
I love the Steelers tonight and obviously, like the other wagers I mentioned above.
Eight Team 7 Point Teaser +900
KC -10.5
LAC -3.5
LAR -3
PITT +3.5
NE PK
CHI PK
PHIL -.5
ATL +.5
All I am asking in this wager is the good teams to basically just win against the bad. This will really test my theory of how the NFL has shifted for this week and the rest of the year.
My Wagers
PITT -3.5
This line keeps dropping and I still love it. The good teams at home on Thursday keep doing well. Carolina does not have any WR to really challenge the Steelers secondary and I know they won’t be able to run the ball.
The computer this week has one Platinum play and several premium plays!
Platinum
MIA +9.5
Premium Plays
CAR +4
WAS +3
LAC -9.5
SEA +10
DAL +6.5
The Rest of the Plays
CHI -6.5
NO -5.5
CLE +4
TEN +6.5
INDY -3
KC -16.5
BUFF +7
NYG +3
Platinum 2-5 (28.57%)
Premium 16-14-3 (53.33%)
Overall 68-60-6 (53.13%)
My Crazy Teasers 4-12 (25%) -820
My Picks 14-10-1 (58.33%)
The Undertaker 2-3 (40%)
Win The Weekends 